U.S. Stock Market Preview | Trump announces several major policies in inauguration speech, Netflix releases earnings report after hours

1. On January 21st (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures rose across the board before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.38%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.45%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.51%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.06%, the French CAC40 index was up 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.05%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 2.30%, priced at $75.61 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.48%, priced at $78.96 per barrel.

Market News

Trump announces several major policies in inauguration speech. On January 20, 2025, Trump announced a series of policies in his inauguration speech covering immigration, tariffs, energy, and more. He plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border, reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" policy, and deport millions of illegal immigrants. Regarding trade, Trump stated he would reform the trade system, establish an external tax service agency, and impose tariffs on foreign imported products. He also declared a national energy emergency, increased traditional energy extraction, and revoked electric vehicle incentives. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order delaying the TikTok ban for 75 days to reassess its policies. These policies have a significant impact on the capital markets. In the short term, the U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff policy but later rebounded briefly due to the signing of the executive order. The U.S. stock market saw a pullback due to disappointment over policy details, while traditional energy companies are expected to benefit.

Trump lifts LNG export ban, European natural gas market undergoes major changes. U.S. President Donald Trump recently lifted the ban on new licenses for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, a move that alleviates long-term uncertainty in global natural gas supply and triggers fluctuations in European natural gas prices. Benchmark futures continued to fluctuate after rising over 2% in the previous trading session. It is understood that Trump revoked a measure implemented by his predecessor, President Biden, in January 2024, which suspended the approval of new licenses for U.S. LNG exports. This move paves the way for related companies to apply for new licenses. Meanwhile, Trump again called on the EU to increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas to avoid potential tariff risks. Currently, the U.S. is already the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to Europe Trump Changes Tariff Stance, Forex Options Traders' Strategies Reverse 180 Degrees in One Day! Less than a day after exiting bullish dollar options trading, some leveraged funds returned to bullish dollar options trading on Tuesday due to President Trump's updated tariff stance. After Trump announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Mexico and Canada before February 1, some hedge funds re-entered the currency options market on Tuesday, as the value of these hedge funds would rise if the dollar appreciates against other currencies (especially the Canadian dollar). Just hours earlier, these hedge funds had exited similar trades after Trump appeared to delay further tariffs on trade partners. Mukund Daga, head of Asian forex options at Barclays Bank in Singapore, stated, "The market is still figuring out how to trade the series of orders executed by Trump."

Guggenheim: The Federal Reserve Will Cut Rates About Once Per Quarter This Year, Overall Up to 100 Basis Points. Anna Walsh, Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, stated to foreign media at the start of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos on Monday that the Federal Reserve may cut rates about once per quarter in 2025, with an overall reduction of around 75 basis points this year, and possibly even a full percentage point. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates, although the pace may be slower than expected. Previously, traders' bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year had decreased from at least three cuts a month ago to just one cut, with the possibility of a second cut still uncertain. Walsh noted that as long as the dollar remains strong as a reserve currency, the U.S. will continue to attract capital, and the tariffs imposed by the incoming President Trump may not be as severe as most expect. The average tariff increase will not exceed 10% and will be set for different countries.

Trump's Ascendancy Intensifies Uncertainty, Japan's Top Currency Officials Quickly Strengthen Verbal Intervention. Japan's top foreign exchange official, Jun Mimura, stated on Tuesday that Japan is closely monitoring market positions, including those based on speculative bets, as exchange rate fluctuations are undesirable. Mimura indicated that the uncertainty of the economic policies of the new U.S. President Trump could unpredictably affect the market, highlighting the difficulty of predicting whether the dollar will continue its general upward trend. Authorities are more concerned about volatility than the level of the yen when guiding exchange rate policy. When asked about the Bank of Japan's policy meeting this week, Mimura stated that the government and the central bank are communicating closely through various channels every day. According to informed sources, unless Trump causes any shocks to the market, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday, which would raise short-term borrowing costs to the highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008.

Individual Stock News

UMC (UMC.US) Reports Fourth Quarter Profit of NT$8.5 Billion, Down 35.6% Year-on-Year. UMC announced its operational results for the fourth quarter of 2024, reporting a quarterly profit of NT$8.5 billion, a decrease of 41% quarter-on-quarter and 35.6% year-on-year, dropping to the lowest point since the third quarter of 2020, with earnings per share of NT$0.68, a gross margin of 30.4%, and an operating profit margin of 19.8%. Co-General Manager Stone Wang stated that the fourth-quarter performance met expectations, with wafer shipments and capacity utilization slightly better than expected, while the full-year revenue for 2024 is expected to increase by 4.4% compared to the previous year Reflecting stable growth in communications, consumer, and computer demand, among which, 22/28 nanometer products still account for the main contribution to revenue, increasing by 15% in 2024.

New Oriental (EDU.US) reported a 6.2% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter to $31.931 million. New Oriental announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ending January 30, 2024, with net revenue increasing by 19.4% year-on-year to $1.0386 billion. Net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce business of Dongfang Zhenxuan) increased by 31.3% year-on-year to $894.2 million. Operating profit decreased by 9.8% year-on-year to $19.3 million, while operating profit (excluding operating losses from self-operated products and live e-commerce business of Dongfang Zhenxuan) increased by 102.5% year-on-year to $25 million. New Oriental's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.2% year-on-year to $31.931 million.

Earnings Preview | Analysts are optimistic about Netflix (NFLX.US) Q4 ad subscriptions boosting growth, target price raised to $950. Netflix will announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday. Ahead of this critical juncture, analysts are mostly bullish on the streaming giant. According to data tracked by Visible Alpha, among 19 brokers covering Netflix, 14 have given a "buy" or equivalent rating, 4 have given a "hold" rating, and only 1 has given a "sell" rating. Overall, Netflix's consensus target price is about $905, approximately 6% higher than the stock's closing price on Friday. Wedbush Securities raised Netflix's target price to $950 this week, noting that the company has an "almost insurmountable competitive advantage" in the streaming market. The firm's analysis suggests that Netflix's $6.99 ad-supported subscription plan effectively limits customer churn, thereby "alleviating the pressure to acquire new users."

For the first time in 2023! LVMH (LVMUY.US) market value returns to the top in Europe. Luxury goods group LVMH's market value has increased by 8.3% since the beginning of the year, reclaiming the title of the largest market capitalization company in Europe, surpassing Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) — whose market value has declined in recent weeks due to disappointing weight loss results from a new generation of experimental weight loss drugs. This is the first time LVMH has achieved this honor since 2023. Under the leadership of Bernard Arnault, LVMH controls about 75 well-known brands across a wide range of categories, including fashion, wine and spirits, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelry. These brands include Dior, Givenchy, Tiffany, Sephora, Stella McCartney, Hennessy, TAG Heuer, Bulgari, and Louis Vuitton.

Is the iPhone not selling well in China? Holiday season sales plummet 18%, global market down 5%. According to independent research firms, Apple's (AAPL.US) iPhone sales in China fell by 18.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, facing a significant setback in the second-largest market after the United States. Counterpoint Research found that the company's flagship phone was the best-selling phone in China a year ago, but has now relinquished the top position to Huawei In the past three months, Apple has slipped to third place in the world's largest smartphone market, holding about one-sixth of the market share. The decline in the Chinese market has led to a 5% drop in global iPhone sales during the critical shopping season. This sales decline highlights the uneven start of the latest generation iPhone in the Chinese market. The iPhone initially performed strongly in China but later lost momentum.

To meet the merger prerequisites with Honda (HMC.US), Nissan (NSANY.US) has launched a production halt and layoff plan. As Honda prepares to merge the struggling Nissan into its operations, the latter is accelerating its business restructuring to meet the terms of the agreement. Reports indicate that Nissan will stop production of its AD compact van in November to cut excess output. A spokesperson for Nissan stated that the manufacturing division Nissan Shatai Co. has not yet made any decisions regarding layoffs and denied an earlier report that claimed hundreds of jobs would be lost once production of the small van ceases.

TSMC (TSM.US) responds to earthquake impact: Operations are gradually resuming. TSMC stated on Tuesday that all its factories have resumed operations following a 6.4 magnitude earthquake that struck rural areas in the southern mountainous region of Taiwan overnight, causing only minor damage and injuries. TSMC reported that personnel were evacuated from the central and southern sites promptly, and a full count was completed around 1 a.m. to ensure all personnel were safe. Currently, all sites have completed post-earthquake damage inspections, confirming that structures are safe, and operations are gradually resuming, with water supply, electricity, workplace safety systems, and operations functioning normally.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Next day at 5:30 a.m. Beijing time: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 17 (in ten thousand barrels).

Next day at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time: NYMEX February crude oil futures will be affected by the roll-over, with the last on-floor trading on January 22 at 3:30 and the last electronic trading at 6:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the expiration roll-over announcements from trading venues to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms may have earlier expiration times for U.S. oil contracts than the official NYMEX schedule, so please be vigilant.

To be determined: The Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will be held until January 24.

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US), Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US), United Airlines (UAL.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Abbott (ABT.US), Halliburton (HAL.US)