Trump's first week was quite "unexpected," the US dollar plummeted, and non-US stock markets surged

In the first week after Trump's inauguration, the financial markets were as stimulating as expected, but the market reaction was unexpected.

During this week, Trump did a lot, from dozens of executive orders to impromptu press conferences, traveling across the country. However, due to the Trump administration's failure to immediately implement tariff measures, the overall performance of the U.S. stock market lagged behind global markets. Japanese semiconductor stocks and European electrical stocks benefited from the market optimism driven by Trump's "Stargate" project, rising significantly.

The dollar plummets, non-U.S. stock markets surge, U.S. bonds remain flat

Adam Phillip, Chief Investment Officer at EP Wealth Advisors, analyzed:

"After the election, the preference for U.S. assets quickly became a consensus, but the new tariffs did not arrive as expected, and we saw an improvement in sentiment for international stocks and currencies. This week, 'America First' trade took a brief pause."

Data shows that while the U.S. stock market saw strong gains, it underperformed Japan and Germany, with gains even lower than some emerging markets. The S&P 500 index rose 1.7%, marking the best start since Reagan's inauguration in 1985. Meanwhile, the German stock market rose 2.4%, the Japanese stock market rose 3.9%, and the Mexican stock market surged nearly 5%, making them more impressive by comparison.

At the same time, the dollar weakened significantly. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.6% for the week, marking the largest weekly decline in 14 months. Emerging market currencies generally rose, with the Colombian peso, Hungarian forint, and Polish zloty all rising more than 3% against the dollar.

Matthew Hornbach, Chief Macro Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated:

"Investors were reluctant to sell the dollar before the inauguration, in case Trump chose to implement tariffs immediately. But now, they have more freedom to act. A significant withdrawal of dollar bulls is expected to benefit the yen, euro, and pound."

The U.S. Treasury market remained relatively calm. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was basically unchanged from a week ago, with the smallest fluctuation since September of last year.

Non-U.S. assets perform well, semiconductor and electrical stocks emerge as winners

Among non-U.S. assets, Japanese semiconductor stocks and European electrical stocks performed particularly well. Last Tuesday, Trump announced the "Stargate" project, where OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle will establish a joint venture to heavily invest in AI infrastructure, planning to spend $500 billion. U.S. large-cap tech stocks rose strongly for the second consecutive week, recovering to near historical highs.

Goldman Sachs data shows that, boosted by this news, a basket of Japanese AI-related stocks surged significantly this week. At the same time, European power-related stocks also saw notable increases

The German stock market also performed well. The German DAX index rose by 2.4%, outperforming major U.S. stock indices. European bank stocks surged significantly, with local analysts attributing this mainly to factors such as low valuations, a sustained high-interest rate environment, robust profit growth, and more relaxed capital management.

Analysts believe that the Trump administration's policy decisions on trade issues in the first week were more moderate than the market expected. This led to a temporary cooling of the previously prevalent "America First" trading strategy, with global investors refocusing on assets outside the U.S.

However, some analysts also warned that next week, with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and the arrival of the earnings season for major tech companies, the issuance of more executive orders by Trump could trigger a new round of significant declines