美联储不降息又一信号 关税政策致美国制造商成本飙升至两年来最高水平

According to the latest manufacturing survey data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, production costs for U.S. manufacturers are rising at the fastest pace in two years. Meanwhile, the new round of import tariffs introduced by U.S. President Trump may further exacerbate price pressures.

The February manufacturing survey from the New York Fed shows that the price indicators paid and received by manufacturers have risen for the second consecutive month. Specifically, the prices paid index surged by 11 points to 40.2, reaching its highest level in nearly two years.

This data comes as the U.S. consumer price index for January exceeded market expectations, intensifying concerns about rising inflation. The increase in manufacturing costs could signal the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts, as policymakers worry that a rebound in inflation could impact economic stability. Additionally, Trump's trade policies further increase market uncertainty.

The Trump administration's new trade plan is becoming a driving force behind rising manufacturing costs. Starting this month, a new 10% tariff on imports from China officially takes effect, with more tariff measures expected to be implemented in the coming weeks. These actions could further raise costs for U.S. manufacturers and disrupt supply chains.

Oliver Allen, a senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, stated that some businesses and consumers have already made advance purchases due to concerns about the additional costs from the new tariffs, which may explain the spike in manufacturing prices in February. He wrote in the report, "This could be a sign that the surge in durable goods demand related to tariffs since the end of last year is beginning to exert upward pressure on prices."

Despite the rise in manufacturing costs, the New York Fed's manufacturing business conditions index increased by 18 points to 5.7 in February. However, indicators related to future business activity and corporate optimism have significantly declined, indicating that businesses remain cautious about the long-term outlook.

The New York Fed's manufacturing survey is conducted on the 1st of each month, targeting executives (usually presidents or CEOs) of about 200 manufacturing firms in New York State. The sample collection period for this survey was from February 3 to 11, with approximately 100 valid responses received