Smart Hong Kong Stocks Early Insights | The average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks exceeds HKD 200 billion this year, with significant improvements in March component production

【Today's Headlines】

Eddie Chen: The average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has exceeded HKD 200 billion this year

Eddie Chen, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, stated on the 9th that the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has exceeded HKD 200 billion this year. In an interview with Hong Kong media on the 9th, Chen mentioned that last year, 71 companies were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 88 billion, an increase of about 90% compared to 2023. By 2025, there have already been 11 new listings, with over 100 companies waiting to go public.

Chen noted that the trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has also made significant progress over the past year, rising from an average daily trading volume of about HKD 100 billion in 2023 to HKD 132 billion last year, and has temporarily surpassed HKD 200 billion this year. She mentioned that in February of this year, the daily trading amount of Hong Kong stocks exceeded HKD 400 billion three times, with a large portion coming from investors around the world. She believes that Hong Kong can play a bridging role and will increase its recognition internationally. This involves Hong Kong stocks, HKEX (00388), and high-quality brokerage sectors.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that during this round of spring rally, investors have two major concerns: first, the bullish trend of Hong Kong stocks and the volatility of A-shares, which has caused performance differentiation in institutional products; second, domestic macro fluctuations are decreasing, and the market is transitioning from three years of macro boom to a macro downturn, but many existing barbell strategies designed to cope with severe macro fluctuations are difficult to adjust during rapid market rises.

From the perspective of market differentiation, in this round of spring rally led by the new economy, the best core assets in the internet, hard technology, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals are concentrated in Hong Kong stocks, which is the essential reason for the bullish trend of Hong Kong stocks while A-shares remain volatile. About 60% of public asset management products do not have access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect; even those that do have access still have an average of about 26.5% room for growth in the proportion of Hong Kong stocks that can be invested in compared to the fund contract limit. Performance differentiation and the horse racing mechanism are driving the accelerated shift of allocation-type holdings from A-shares to Hong Kong stocks, exacerbating the divergence in market trends between the two regions.

From the perspective of strategic paradigms, the past three years have been macro boom years, where macro fluctuations and policy responses were the main variables driving the market, and barbell strategies became a way to cope with frequent macro disturbances. In contrast, this year, policy direction and goals are clear, domestic macro fluctuations are decreasing, and the market is transitioning to a macro downturn, making it difficult for marginal changes in macro and policy to become factors driving market direction and structure. The idea driven by industrial prosperity is taking over from barbell strategies.

In terms of response, edge AI and high-energy-density batteries are relatively exclusive industrial themes in A-shares, and we expect a concentrated catalyst in the second quarter; the clearing of traditional core assets in A-shares is accelerating, and as the economy recovers, operational turning points are expected to emerge. At the same time, we anticipate that some leading companies planning to list in both markets will see their market performance kick off as they successfully list in Hong Kong.

【Market Outlook】

U.S. stocks will enter Daylight Saving Time on March 9

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 222.64 points, an increase of 0.52%, closing at 42,801.72 points; the Nasdaq rose 126.97 points, an increase of 0.70%, closing at 18,196.22 points; the S&P 500 index rose 31.68 points, an increase of 0.55%, closing at 5,770.20 points. As of Friday's close, the Dow fell 2.37% last week, and the Nasdaq fell 3.45% The S&P 500 index fell by 3.10%, recording its largest weekly decline since September 2024. The S&P 500 index recorded its largest weekly decline since September 2024. Last week, Tesla dropped a cumulative 10.35%, NVIDIA fell 9.79%, Meta decreased by 6.37%, and Amazon declined by 6.14%.

Last week, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose approximately 5%. Popular Chinese concept stocks such as Bilibili rose over 8%, while Li Auto and XPeng both increased by over 5%. The Hang Seng Index ADR fell, closing at 24033.35, down 197.95 points or 0.82% compared to the Hong Kong closing.

U.S. stocks will enter Daylight Saving Time on March 9, with pre-market trading hours changing from 17:00-22:30 Beijing time to 16:00-21:30, continuous trading hours changing from 22:30-5:00 to 21:30-4:00, and after-hours trading hours changing from 5:00-9:00 to 4:00-8:00, all one hour earlier than Standard Time. The timing for the release of economic data will also be one hour earlier than Standard Time.

【Hot Topics Preview】

Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market

Ni Hong, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, stated at the press conference on the theme of people's livelihood during the third session of the 14th National People's Congress that since September last year, real estate policies have been continuously strengthened, with various regions implementing city-specific and precise policies to vigorously support residents' rigid and improvement needs. The battle to ensure housing delivery has successfully completed its annual target through efforts, and with the joint efforts of all parties, market confidence has been effectively boosted, leading to positive changes in the real estate market. According to statistical data, the real estate market has maintained a positive momentum of stabilization in January and February this year.

Multiple Photovoltaic Companies Respond to the Impact of Power Market Reform: Significant Increase in March Module Production

Recently, several leading companies in the photovoltaic industry disclosed the minutes of their February research, noting that investors are generally concerned about the potential impact of domestic power market reform policies on future market demand. JinkoSolar stated that with the steady advancement of supply-side reform in the industry and the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival, coupled with the expectation of a rush for installations due to power market reform in the first half of the year, domestic module prices have slightly increased. The company believes that in the short term, the new and old policies may stimulate some photovoltaic projects to rush for installations; in the medium to long term, this will promote the transformation of the power system towards efficiency, low carbon, and flexibility, generating spontaneous storage demand and driving high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry.

LONGi Green Energy stated that due to the impact of domestic new energy power market entry policies, there may be a rush for installations in the second quarter of 2025. Currently, the domestic distributed market has gradually begun to scale up, pushing up distributed module prices moderately, while other segments have also adjusted to varying degrees due to terminal demand. Regarding future changes in the industry chain prices, attention should still be paid to the changes in the relationship between industry output and demand.

Tongyuan Kang Pharmaceutical-B (02410): Key Phase II Clinical Trial Data of TY-9591 Compared to Osimertinib as First-Line Treatment for EGFR Mutant Lung Cancer Brain Metastases Achieves Research Expectations with Statistical Significance and Major Clinical Benefits Zhitong Finance APP news, Tongyuan Kang Pharmaceutical-B (02410) announced that its independently developed TY-9591 (trade name: Kadasha®) has shown statistically significant significance and substantial clinical benefits compared to Osimertinib (trade name: Tagrisso®) in a key Phase II clinical trial for first-line treatment of EGFR-mutant lung cancer with brain metastases, according to researcher data. The primary endpoint of intracranial objective response rate (iORR) achieved the expected goal, with TY-9591 showing statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements compared to Osimertinib, with significant statistical differences observed in both the overall population and different subgroups (including genetic typing, number of intracranial lesions, ECOG scores, etc.).

Innovent Biologics (09969): ICP-488 shows significant efficacy in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis with good safety and tolerability

Zhitong Finance APP news, Innovent Biologics (09969) announced that the Phase II study data for CP-488 in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis has been released at the 2025 American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) annual meeting, which is the most influential international event in the field of dermatology, with the relevant data presented in a major oral report.

National Supercomputing Internet Platform QwQ-32B API interface service launched, offering 1 million Tokens for free

The National Supercomputing Internet Platform announced yesterday that it will launch the Alibaba open-source inference model QwQ-32B API interface service this week, allowing users to obtain 1 million Tokens for free. QwQ-32B is the latest inference model released by the Alibaba Qwen team, built on Qwen2.5-32B+ reinforcement learning. According to the benchmark evaluation results publicly disclosed, QwQ-32B performed comparably to DeepSeek-R1 on the AIME24 assessment set testing mathematical abilities and outperformed o1-mini and the same-sized R1 distilled model in the LiveCodeBench evaluating coding abilities. This involves Alibaba-W (09988).

"Nezha 2" boosts derivative peripheral products, hard to find "Nezha" in Guiyang trendy toy stores

Since the release of the Spring Festival movie, the domestic animated film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" has not only entered the global box office top 7 with over 14.5 billion yuan in box office but also sparked a nationwide buying frenzy for its derivative peripheral products. In several trendy toy stores in Guiyang, Nezha series figurines, blind boxes, and other products are hard to find, with consumers exclaiming, "Buying peripherals is harder than watching the movie." It is reported that the blind box series of the innate bond series figurines co-launched by Pop Mart and "Nezha 2" is highly favored by fans and trendy toy enthusiasts due to its exquisite design and high fidelity to movie characters and scenes. A reporter found that the reservation for this series of figurine blind boxes has been scheduled until mid to late June.

Chifeng Gold (06693): H-shares will be listed and traded on March 10

Chifeng Gold announced on the evening of March 9 that, with the approval of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company’s issuance of 206 million H-shares will be listed and traded on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10, 2025. The Chinese abbreviation for the company's H-shares is "Chifeng Gold," and the stock code is "6693." Lao Pu Gold (06181) Received H-share Full Circulation Filing Notice from China Securities Regulatory Commission

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Lao Pu Gold (06181) announced that on March 7, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a filing notice to the company regarding H-share full circulation. According to the filing notice, the company has completed the filing with the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding the H-share full circulation matter (involving the conversion of 40.3889 million unlisted shares held by three company shareholders into 40.3889 million H-shares). If the share conversion is not completed within 12 months from the date of the filing notice (i.e., March 7, 2025), and the company still intends to carry out the conversion, the company shall update the filing materials to the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company will apply to the Stock Exchange for approval to list and trade such H-shares on the main board of the Stock Exchange.

【Stock Highlights】

Minmetals Resources (01208): Benefiting from the Upward Cycle of Metal Resource Prices

Minmetals Resources recently announced its 2024 annual report, with revenue of USD 4.479 billion, an increase of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of USD 162 million, a 17-fold increase, with earnings per share of 1.53 cents. No final dividend will be declared. The company's net profit for 2024 increased by 200%, with overall improvement in mining performance and significant enhancement in profitability. The core mine, Las Bambas copper mine, has resumed normal operations, with increased output and sharply reduced costs. Las Bambas copper mine is among the top 10 copper mines globally, with a copper resource of 8.7 million tons and reserves of 4.6 million tons, producing 323,000 tons of copper in 2024, and is expected to produce 400,000 tons in 2025. The company's copper production continues to increase, and it is expected to fully enjoy the profit elasticity brought by rising copper prices.

Minmetals Resources held its 2024 annual performance meeting in Hong Kong. Regarding the company's acquisition of Anglo American's nickel business assets in Brazil (referred to as Brazil Nickel), Chairman Xu Jiqing stated that the company will not be satisfied with the current annual nickel production of about 40,000 tons. After completing the delivery, the company will leverage its advantages and a series of procedures to expedite the promotion of two "greenfield projects" (generally referring to new projects built from scratch in the industry). Xu Jiqing introduced: "It is expected that around 2030, if the project's resource volume is solidified, we hope to increase production from the current 40,000 tons to possibly over 150,000 tons.

Citi released a research report stating that Minmetals Resources' EBITDA increased by 40% year-on-year to USD 2.049 billion last year. Even with increased supply from Indonesia and a short-term oversupply in the nickel industry, management expects a secondary nickel shortage to emerge globally starting this year. The bank has lowered Minmetals Resources' earnings forecasts for the next two years by 57% and 35%, to USD 282 million and USD 700 million, respectively, with an expected reach of USD 992 million by 2027.

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