Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" precisely strike Apple: Is the $3 trillion empire heading towards collapse?

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, American consumer electronics giant Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) is attempting to avoid the global trade war and supply chain risks through its "Apple Supply Chain" strategy of diversifying overseas production and manufacturing bases. However, it is facing significant blows from the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by President Trump. The core production bases for iPhone, AirPods, iPad, and Apple Watch around the world will be severely impacted by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, putting the "Apple Global Supply Chain," which Apple has painstakingly built over the years, at a critical juncture. Some investors have even mockingly stated that "Trump's new tariff policy seems to target countries with a huge trade surplus with the U.S., but in reality, it is precisely aimed at Apple."

In terms of stock price, Apple, with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, may enter a stock price plummet mode from this moment on. After Trump announced the new tariff policy, Apple's stock price fell sharply in after-hours trading, with the current market value of $3.36 trillion making it the "highest market value company in the world," and its stock price dropped over 7.5% at one point in after-hours trading, becoming the most severely impacted giant among the "seven giants of U.S. stocks" that account for over 30% of the S&P 500 index.

On Wednesday local time, the White House announced that the "reciprocal tariffs" to be imposed on Chinese goods would reach 34%, ultimately raising the total tax rate on U.S. imports from China to 54%. This will severely impact the "Apple Supply Chain System," which is centered around Chinese supply and manufacturing bases. Moreover, the new tariff policy will also cover Apple's other global production and manufacturing centers, likely dealing a heavy blow to its outsourcing strategy centered on "globalization of Apple manufacturing" for consumer electronics products.

It is understood that on April 2, Wednesday, after-hours trading in the U.S., President Trump signed two executive orders regarding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trade partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trade partners. Trump stated that the U.S. would calculate all tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and other forms of comprehensive tax rates for countries that pose a significant trade threat to the U.S. The tariffs will not be completely reciprocal, and the U.S. will charge these countries about half the fees.

At the same time, the White House issued a statement saying that Trump declared a national emergency to enhance the U.S. competitive advantage, protect U.S. sovereignty, and strengthen national and economic security. These latest statements mean that the Trump-led U.S. government will impose a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries, which will take effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on April 5. Additionally, Trump will impose personalized higher "reciprocal tariffs" on the countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., which will take effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on April 9, while all other countries will continue to adhere to the original 10% tariff benchmark.

China, which occupies the most core position in the "Apple Supply Chain," faces a 34% reciprocal tariff, and the details of the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" faced by Apple's major production bases around the world are as follows:

India (one of the largest production bases for iPhone and AirPods): Up to 26% reciprocal tariffVietnam (production locations for some AirPods/iPad/Apple Watch/Mac series products): 46% reciprocal tariff

Malaysia (one of the production locations for Mac computers): 24% reciprocal tariff

Thailand (production location for some Mac products): 36% reciprocal tariff

Ireland (production location for some iMac products): 20% tariff

This news has triggered extreme panic among Apple investors, with the stock price plummeting about 7.5% in after-hours trading. Since the beginning of this year, Apple's stock price, which holds a high weight in the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index, has cumulatively dropped 11%, becoming a significant part of the tech stock sell-off in the U.S. The White House stated that the new tariffs will take effect on April 9, and Apple spokesperson has not yet commented.

Overall, according to the new tariff chart released by the White House, in addition to imposing a 34% tariff on China, the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from the UK, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, a 17% tariff on Israeli goods, a 20% tariff on EU goods, a 24% tariff on Japanese goods, a 25% tariff on South Korean goods, a 26% tariff on Indian goods, a 36% tariff on Thai goods, a 39% tariff on Iraqi goods, a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, and a 49% tariff on Cambodian goods, the highest rate.

"The stock god's" credibility is still rising

Some institutional investors commented that after Trump introduced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which could trigger a global trade war, "stock god" Warren Buffett significantly reduced his position in Apple in 2024 and shifted to a large-scale allocation of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which is indeed a "masterful operation."

Although there is no direct evidence or Buffett's direct statements indicating that he is bearish on the stock market, his increasingly cautious investment strategy in recent years is evident, such as the growing cash holdings and the significant reduction of his Apple position in 2024. With an enormous cash reserve, especially a large amount of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and a drastic reduction in his exposure to Apple, Buffett has perfectly avoided the "tariff storm" since late February that severely impacted U.S. businesses and consumer confidence, driving up expectations of stagflation and economic recession, which indirectly led to the sharp decline in U.S. stocks. He is also enjoying the substantial returns from the rising short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, benefiting from the bond price spread and interest.

This year, Buffett continues to advocate the "cash is king" strategy, with Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reaching a new historical high. The world's most famous stock investor has shown an overwhelming preference for cash since 2024, interpreted by the market as a bet that the U.S. economy and stock market will face turmoil. It has proven that the "stock god" indeed has foresight; in 2025, the shadows of "stagflation" and economic recession loom over the U.S. economy, causing the S&P 500 Index to significantly underperform most emerging markets and European stock indices this year, with both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index experiencing declines.

Buffett's shareholder letter states that he significantly increased his holdings of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds in 2024, and most of the aforementioned cash reserves likely belong to a short-term U.S. Treasury bond portfolio, with investment returns achieving a foreseeable substantial increaseIn terms of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds (i.e., U.S. bonds with a maturity of one year or less), Berkshire Hathaway has been continuously expanding its holdings of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds since 2024, and its position size is much larger than that of the Federal Reserve's short-term U.S. Treasury bond holdings.

Short-term, highly liquid financial instruments, such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of one year or less, commercial paper, and bank deposits, are often viewed by the investment community as cash equivalents that can be quickly liquidated due to their high liquidity, extremely low risk, and price stability, meeting investors' needs for immediate redemption.

Berkshire Hathaway's latest financial report shows that its insurance profits surged in the fourth quarter, driving operating profits up by 71%. While continuing to reduce stock holdings, cash reserves reached a record $334.2 billion, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. Notably, cash accounted for 29% of total assets, reaching a multi-decade high.

This time, can Apple obtain a "waiver" from the Trump administration's tariffs?

Additionally, due to the need to source core components required for producing iPhones and other consumer electronics from multiple regions affected by reciprocal tariff policies, Apple will inevitably face a more profound "fundamental performance impact."

During Trump's first term, Apple CEO Tim Cook successfully lobbied to exclude iPhones and other consumer electronics from the list of products subject to Trump's tariff policies, arguing that tariffs would harm U.S. companies while benefiting foreign competitors like South Korea's Samsung Electronics.

Earlier this year, Apple pledged to invest up to $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years (not accounting for inflation, significantly faster than the investment pace during the Biden administration), attempting to persuade Trump during his second term to continue excluding Apple from the U.S. government's tariff list by gradually shifting its global production base to the U.S.

Analysts have indicated that although Apple plans to significantly relocate its global consumer electronics production base to the U.S., this ambitious goal may not even achieve a 50% relocation progress during Trump's four-year term, and it may face a surge in operating costs, potentially leading to significant price increases for Apple products, ultimately severely impacting global consumer demand due to higher prices.

Analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard from Bloomberg Intelligence stated, "The new taxation policy may severely squeeze Apple's profit margins, as we expect the company will not offset the impact through price increases." "If Apple really announces price hikes, it will further dampen already weak consumer confidence."

As part of the plan to relocate the "Apple supply chain" to the U.S., Apple plans to soon produce high-performance AI servers required for its artificial intelligence systems in Texas and plans to produce core chips for its product series on a small scale at the chip factory being newly built by TSMC in Arizona.

Currently, Apple does not have a so-called large-scale production base in the U.S., only promoting that the Mac Pro, starting at $6,999, is assembled in Texas. However, the sales of this product are extremely small compared to flagship products like the iPhone, and a large number of core components are still imported from core regions of the "Apple supply chain" globally, such as China