According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the shockwaves from the Trump administration's tariff policies continue to unfold, Goldman Sachs released its latest research report on April 6, indicating that the research team led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius has significantly raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months to 45%, an increase of 10 percentage points from previous forecasts. The report also lowered the GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.5%, halving the original prediction. Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in June, one month earlier than previously anticipated.
The report highlights three core contradictions: unexpected tightening of financial conditions, escalation of countermeasures by international trade partners, and increased uncertainty regarding policy direction. These factors may lead to capital expenditures being suppressed beyond the bank's previous expectations.
Goldman Sachs' analyst team specifically warned that if the tariff measures scheduled to take effect on April 9 are fully implemented, along with potential expansions of industry tariffs, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. could soar by 20 percentage points, far exceeding the current model's assumption of a 15 percentage point baseline scenario. &#34;In this extreme scenario, we have to consider adjusting the baseline forecast to a recession,&#34; the report stated sternly.
Regarding the direction of monetary policy, the Goldman Sachs team expects that under the baseline scenario (assuming some tariffs are postponed), the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle will begin in June, one month earlier than the previously expected July.
The specific path involves three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each, guiding the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%. If the economy falls into recession, the team expects the rate cut magnitude to expand to 200 basis points, raising the annual cumulative rate cut expectation from 105 basis points to 130 basis points, resonating with current market pricing.
The deeper logic revealed by this report is worth noting: tariff policies not only directly raise import costs but also impact corporate investment confidence through expectation channels. The report specifically points out that the reduction in capital expenditures may exceed previous estimates, forming a negative cycle of &#34;policy tightening - confidence shrinking - investment cooling.&#34;

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months to 45% and expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, one month earlier than originally scheduled for July. The report points out that tariff policies have led to a tightening financial environment, escalating international trade retaliation, and increased policy uncertainty, which may suppress capital expenditure. If tariff measures are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. could soar by 20 percentage points, increasing the risk of economic recession. The expectation for interest rate cuts has been raised from 105 basis points to 130 basis points, reflecting market concerns about the economic outlook

- Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 45% over the next 12 months, a 10% increase from previous forecasts, due to the ongoing impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.  
- The report also lowers the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 0.5% and anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June, one month earlier than expected.  
- Key concerns include tightening financial conditions, escalating trade retaliation, and increased policy uncertainty, which may significantly suppress capital expenditures beyond earlier estimates.