According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Peter Berezin, the global chief strategist at BCA Research, a global economic analysis company, stated that his bearish options bets have yielded substantial profits due to his prediction that U.S. stocks are likely to face sell-offs. He added that since the S&amp;P 500 index has further declines to reach his target level of 4450 points (below consensus expectations), he may make another bearish bet.
Recently, U.S. stocks have been severely impacted by President Trump's tariff measures, which have brought returns to BCA Research, who had previously bet on a decline in U.S. stocks. Peter Berezin said, &#34;I am willing to double down again because the stock market and the economy still have downside potential.&#34;
Peter Berezin pointed out, &#34;I guess investors think the U.S. government will strike good deals with everyone else. But the problem is that the U.S. trade deficit is not due to other countries imposing tariffs on the U.S.&#34; &#34;The existence of the U.S. trade deficit is because other countries often prefer to buy U.S. assets rather than U.S. goods. They are more willing to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds or Nvidia stocks because they see the U.S. as a safe and attractive investment destination. This is a good thing. So Trump's entire tariff policy is illogical.&#34;
Trump's large-scale tariff increases have prompted economists at Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street brokerage firms to issue warnings about the rising risk of economic recession. For example, Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next 12 months from the previous 35% to 45%, while lowering its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.0% to just 0.5%. Goldman Sachs stated that the reason for the increase in the probability of a U.S. recession is due to the Trump administration's tariff measures exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty, which has a greater suppressive effect on capital expenditures than previously anticipated. Notably, Goldman Sachs had just raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35% the previous Monday.
In addition to Goldman Sachs, since Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy, several market institutions have significantly lowered their growth expectations for the U.S. economy this year, anticipating a recession. JPMorgan stated that considering the potential impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy, it expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year. Citigroup has lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. this year to 0.1%. Barclays Bank expects the U.S. GDP to contract in 2025. The U.S. PNC Financial Services Group stated that the ongoing trade war will significantly increase the risk of a U.S. recession. Deutsche Bank recently warned that the tariff policy could even trigger a dollar crisis, causing the market to lose confidence in the dollar.
Peter Berezin stated, &#34;We are heading towards a recession, and the trading levels in the market, the level of corporate bond spreads, and commodity prices do not align with recession expectations, so many cyclical assets face greater downside risks.&#34;

BCA Research Chief Strategist Peter Berezin predicts that the S&P 500 index will fall to 4,450 points, believing that U.S. stocks and the economy still have room for decline. He stated that the recent heavy blow to U.S. stocks was due to Trump's tariff policy, and BCA Research's bearish options bets have yielded substantial profits. Berezin pointed out that the U.S. trade deficit is not due to tariffs, but rather because other countries are more inclined to purchase U.S. assets. Goldman Sachs has also raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 35% to 45%

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The bearish hunters pull the trigger again! BCA Research's chief strategist predicts the S&P 500 will drop to 4,450 points