How significant is the impact of tariffs on the U.S. retail industry? The market is hesitant to believe

華爾街見聞
2025.04.17 01:42

大摩最新研報顯示，現行關税下，零售價格將平均上漲 3.6%，零售商毛利平均下跌 16%，EBIT 平均大跌 30%。預計 Target 將提價 6%，毛利跌 30%，EBIT 暴跌 70%。這對美國零售商影響巨大，市場對關税維持現狀的信心不足。

大摩最新的研報測算，在現行税率下，假設供應商承擔 50%，零售商承擔 25%，然後消費者承擔 25%：

那零售價格將平均上漲 3.6%，零售商毛利平均下跌 16%，EBIT（息税前收益）平均大跌 30%。

其中大摩預計美國知名連鎖零售巨頭 Target 將提價 6%，毛利跌 30%，EBIT 更是暴跌 70%。

這顯示對美國零售商是災難性的，這也表明市場根本不相信關税會維持在目前的水平。

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