June 4 Financial Breakfast: The US dollar and US stocks rise, gold stops at 3400, and Nvidia's market value reaches a new peak!

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Trump officially signed an executive order to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with the White House confirming a request for countries to submit their best trade agreement terms. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally for this year and next. However, U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.391 million in April, indicating a robust job market, while the dollar, U.S. stocks, U.S. bond yields, and oil prices all increased. The market is focused on the upcoming call between U.S. and Chinese leaders and the U.S. Senate's discussions on tax reform and spending bills.

The three major U.S. stock indices continued their upward momentum, with the Dow Jones rising 0.51% for four consecutive days; the S&P 500 increased by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq turned up by 0.81%, erasing its losses since 2025 and turning positive; the China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.56%. In terms of popular stocks, NVIDIA rose by 2.9%, becoming the strongest performer among Dow components, with a market capitalization of $3.45 trillion, surpassing Microsoft and Apple's market caps of $3.44 trillion and $3.04 trillion, respectively, reclaiming the top spot. Coca-Cola fell by 1.1%, making it the biggest decliner among Dow components.

The dollar index rose by 0.55%, returning above 99.0; USD/JPY increased by 0.92%, ending a three-day decline, while EUR/USD fell by 0.64%, dropping below 1.1400; gold dropped by 0.87%, falling below $3360; WTI crude oil rose by 0.48%, marking its second consecutive day of increase; Bitcoin fell by 0.16%, ending a three-day rise, while Ethereum dropped by 0.32%.

Macro News

Trump officially signs order to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, market anticipates U.S.-China leader call

U.S. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt announced that President Trump has officially signed an executive order to double the steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that China still has the option to choose whether to become a trustworthy trade partner in the world. He emphasized that China cannot rely on excessive exports to solve problems but should increase fiscal stimulus to promote a consumption-driven economic model, which would help improve global economic imbalances. Trump hopes for more manufacturing in the U.S. and aims to attract more foreign investment.

Currently, the market is focused on the potential call between U.S. and Chinese leaders this week. Mabrouk Chetouane, global market strategy director at French foreign trade bank, pointed out that global investors are waiting for the Chinese government to implement more fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand; however, the central government’s current stance suggests that large-scale fiscal measures are unlikely to be introduced. The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.3, down 2.1% from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 and the lowest level since September 2022.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that negotiations are making progress, and he is "very optimistic" about the prospects of reaching a trade agreement between the U.S. and India, believing that an agreement can be reached soon, with both sides working to conclude negotiations before the July deadline OECD lowers global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.9%

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stated that due to the greater impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on the U.S. economy, the slowdown in global economic growth will exceed its expectations from a few months ago, leading to a downward revision of the global economic outlook. The OECD pointed out that if protectionism intensifies, further exacerbating inflation, disrupting supply chains, and disturbing financial markets, the growth outlook could be even weaker. The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.1% to 2.9%; it has also lowered next year's global economic growth forecast from 3% to 2.9%.

The OECD has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.6%, expecting U.S. economic growth of 1.5% next year. The OECD's calculations assume that tariffs implemented in mid-May will remain in effect for the remainder of this year and next year. The OECD expects the Eurozone to grow by 1% this year and by 1.2% next year; it expects the UK to grow by 1.3% this year and by 1% next year; and it anticipates Germany to grow by 0.4% this year and by 1.2% next year.

Opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Federal Reserve bond portfolio records over $1 trillion in paper losses

Six Nobel Prize-winning economists signed an open letter criticizing the tax reform and spending bill promoted by Trump, stating that it makes life more difficult for low-income families. Elon Musk, who just ended his tenure at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), fiercely criticized the tax and spending bill as "an appalling act," claiming that the bill would cause the already massive U.S. government budget deficit to surge to $2.5 trillion, burdening citizens with unmanageable debt.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, supported by Trump, was passed by the House of Representatives earlier by a narrow margin of one vote and began discussions in the Senate on Monday. Republicans hope the Senate will complete the bill review by July 4, allowing it to be signed into law by Trump. The version of the bill passed by the House at the end of May would raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The version currently under Senate review would further increase the debt ceiling to a total of $5 trillion.

A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the Federal Reserve recorded over $1 trillion in paper losses last year due to the depreciation of the bonds it holds. According to the report, the paper losses recorded last year were due to higher market interest rates. Paper losses reflect the difference between the market value and face value of the securities held by the Federal Reserve, which does not affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy operations, as long as the Federal Reserve holds the securities until maturity, there is no need to worry about loss issues.

In April, the U.S. JOLTS job openings were 7.391 million, UBS expects the U.S. economy can avoid a hard landing

In April, the U.S. JOLTS job openings were 7.391 million, compared to an expectation of 7.1 million and a previous value of 7.192 million. The unexpectedly large increase in job openings in April, along with a faster pace of hiring, indicates that despite increasing economic uncertainty, labor demand remains robust UBS believes that after Trump suspended the reciprocal tariff measures above the 10% benchmark, the U.S. economy will not experience a hard landing, but the probability of recession has increased. The UBS economic analysis team analyzed the chances of a U.S. economic recession based on hard data, interest rates, and credit signals. Combining three indicators, UBS estimates that the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession has reached 37%, an increase of 11 percentage points from last December's low of 26%, indicating a continued risk of recession.

Federal Reserve emphasizes uncertainty in inflation outlook

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pointed out that many senior executives of large corporations have recently mentioned raising product prices, a significant portion of which is influenced by tariffs. He believes that the price increase actions will be reflected in inflation data in the next month or two. As for the impact of rising operating costs on the economy, he believes it will take some time to manifest.

Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that as of April, there are no clear signs showing that tariffs are pushing up inflation. Some signs indicate a weakening labor market, but there is no clear evidence showing a severe deterioration in the job market. He believes that the Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in its anti-inflation mission and hopes to see significant progress on inflation issues, with one more opportunity for rate cuts within the year.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook believes that Trump's trade policies will affect the momentum of falling inflation and the labor market, with tariff measures potentially causing prices to rise, leading to a rebound in inflation that is currently declining; additionally, trade policies may also lead to a softening job market.

Market Trends

U.S. Stocks: All three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.51%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Nasdaq up 0.81%.

European Stocks: European stock markets generally rose, with the German DAX 30 index up 0.67%. The French CAC 40 index rose 0.34%. The UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.15%.

Bond Market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark treasury bond is about 4.45%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day.

Commodities: Gold fell 0.87%, reported at $3,353 per ounce. WTI crude oil rose 0.48%, reported at $63.34 per barrel.

Foreign Exchange: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.55%, reported at 99.15. The USD/JPY rose 0.92%, while the EUR/USD fell 0.64%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fell 0.43% in the last 24 hours, currently reported at $105,600. Ethereum fell 0.55% in the last 24 hours, currently reported at $2,600.

Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index night market futures closed at 23,397 points, up 29 points, 115 points lower than yesterday's Hang Seng Index closing of 23,512 points, with a turnover of 13,188 contracts. The night market futures for the National Index closed at 8,458 points, 62 points lower than yesterday's National Index closing.

Global Company News

Musk expects SpaceX to reach $15.5 billion in revenue this year

Musk stated on social media on Tuesday that he expects his space exploration company SpaceX to achieve approximately $15.5 billion in revenue this year SpaceX's revenue mainly comes from its satellite internet service Starlink. Musk stated that the service will go public but did not provide a timeline.

Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 index target to 6,550 points

Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Equity and Global Strategist Binky Chadha released a report on Tuesday, raising the S&P 500 index forecast from 6,150 points, an increase of 6.5% to 6,550 points, indicating about a 10% upside from Monday's closing price. Chadha stated that the bank's fundamental forecast is that if trade policies continue to ease, the stock market will rise significantly, and the U.S. government's easing will come earlier than expected, mainly driven by market reactions.

CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) lowers earnings guidance for the current quarter, stock price falls 7% in after-hours trading

Cybersecurity company CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) announced that for the quarter ending in April, its adjusted earnings per share were $0.73, exceeding market expectations of $0.66. However, it expects current quarter revenue to fall short of expectations, leading to a 7% drop in its stock price in after-hours trading.

The company stated that it expects second-quarter sales to reach $1.15 billion, below the market expectation of $1.16 billion.

Today's Key News Preview

Australia's Q1 GDP year-on-year

Eurozone May Services PMI final value

U.S. May ADP employment numbers

Federal Reserve's Bostic and Cook attending events

U.S. May S&P Global Services PMI final value

Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision

U.S. May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30

Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions