Historic rebound! The S&P 500 is just one step away from its all-time high
The S&P 500 index in the US stock market has experienced a historic rebound, just a step away from its all-time high. Three months ago, the index was on the brink of entering a bear market, but it is now expected to rise nearly 10%. Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone pointed out that market sentiment has shifted from panic over tariffs to optimism about trade agreements, with investors beginning to chase returns. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, central bank interest rate cuts and a relaxed financial environment have also supported the repricing of risk assets
The Zhitong Finance APP learned that from nearly falling into a bear market three months ago to now being just one step away from historical highs, the recent rebound in the US stock market is historic. In the past 100 years, there have only been three instances where the S&P 500 index successfully rebounded after a 10% drop in the same quarter, and this rebound is one of them. The difference is that the two previous rapid rebounds in 2016 and 1933 only resulted in slight increases, but the S&P 500 index is expected to rise nearly 10% this quarter.
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone stated, "April was a crisis moment—at that time, the financial environment was tightening, economic growth was slowing, and multiple asset classes showed signs of weakness. But since then, we have entered the 'response phase.'"
As market sentiment shifted from panic over tariffs to optimism about trade agreements, investors moved from hedging risks to chasing returns, even beginning to buy low-quality assets. Concerns over soaring inflation have also been overshadowed by strong consumer spending and robust corporate profit margins, with systemic sell-offs giving way to reduced market volatility.
Even the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has not hindered this rebound. Currently, central banks around the world are beginning to shift towards interest rate cuts, and the financial environment is loosening, with long-term interest rates significantly retreating from quarterly highs. Paolo Schiavone stated, "This macro backdrop will prompt a substantial repricing of risk assets, especially as investors still maintain defensive positions."
