Uncertainty dominates ECB forum
A central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, highlights uncertainty in trade, growth, and inflation, as ECB President Christine Lagarde addresses global policymakers. U.S. President Trump's stalled legislation and looming tariffs add to the uncertainty. Asian equity markets rise, except for Japan's Nikkei, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures indicate a flat opening. The euro is on track for a record 10th consecutive day of gains against the dollar. Key market influences include the ECB conference, U.S. ISM manufacturing data, and PMI data for Europe.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift
A central bank Who’s Who is due to speak in Sintra, Portugal today as policymakers grapple with an uncertain landscape for trade, growth and inflation.
Uncertainty was the key theme in opening remarks from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday at the ECB’s annual forum for central bankers. Lagarde is scheduled to join a panel with central bank heads from the United States, Japan, Britain and South Korea at 1330 GMT.
And uncertainty remains over U.S. President Donald Trump’s “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” which remains logjammed at the Senate. Trump is desperate to get it passed before America’s “Independence Day” on July 4, while deadlines over his “Liberation Day” tariffs loom over trade negotiations.
Trump called Japan “spoiled” as a trade deal between the two nations remained elusive, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs.
Except for Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) , equity markets were broadly higher in Asia, with benchmark indexes in South Korea (.KS11) and Taiwan (.TWII) climbing more than 1.4%. Fresh readings from the Bank of Japan’s tankan index and China’s Caixin PMI indicated Asia’s biggest economies were weathering the tariff storm, at least for now.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures (STXEc1) pointed to a flat opening, while German DAX futures (FDXc1) were up about 0.1%. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis (ESc1) , were down 0.1%.
The euro continued its winning days, poised for a record 10th consecutive day of gains against the U.S. dollar, reaching $1.1808, the highest since September 2021. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
ECB’s Sintra conference policy panel
U.S. ISM manufacturing data for June
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) data for France, Germany, and Euro Zone for June
UK house prices for June
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Reuters poll: Year-ahead major currency forecasts
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)