Trump's deadline for reciprocal tariffs is approaching, and the U.S. stock market is pessimistic about three scenarios of "uncertainty."

TradingKey - There are only two days left until the suspension period for the reciprocal tariffs set by U.S. President Trump on July 9 ends. Although the tariff levels, effective dates, and whether they will be postponed remain uncertain factors, there has not been a significant panic sell-off in the U.S. stock market.

Last week, President Trump stated that he had signed tariff letters for 12 countries and sent notification letters on July 7. Trump previously revealed that the unilaterally set tariff rates could range from 10% to 70% and would take effect on August 1.

So far, the U.S. has only reached three trade agreements. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that he does not support viewing August 1 as a new deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, calling it the implementation time point.

Whether from the S&P 500 index refreshing its historical record three times last week, or the market's expectation index for U.S. stock volatility halving since April, risk asset investors seem calm about the new tariff levels that will be announced soon.

Some investors have indicated that this may be because the deadline has enough flexibility, believing that the worst-case scenario is no longer under consideration.

In other words, this is a renewed bet on the " TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out trading) that emerged in May—investors believe Trump may continue to extend the deadline or announce a less severe tariff policy.

According to The Wall Street Journal, uncertainty is usually disliked by traders, but this time the uncertainty may present three scenarios, from which investors can also find optimistic signs.

First, uncertainty is diminishing. The market believes they have figured out the ins and outs of Trump's tariff strategy, and the significant rebound in the stock market over the past few months has largely been due to the previous massive sell-off forcing Trump to delay the implementation of most tariff policies.

Second, uncertainty only has a negative impact on the dollar. During the periods of sharp declines and rises in U.S. stocks, a weak dollar has become a relatively certain trend, with the dollar index in the first half of 2025 recording the worst start since the Nixon administration in 1973.

Third, uncertainty will eventually have an impact, but it takes time. The uncertainty of tariff policies will affect corporate executives' critical decision-making and suppress investment behavior.

However, Bank of America stated that it will take some time for this to manifest. There has not yet been any visible impact of uncertainty on capital expenditures—the huge spending on AI data center construction may overshadow this economic impact, nor has there been any visible impact of tariffs on inflation—although inflation has rebounded in recent months, the impact has been limited.

Nevertheless, The Wall Street Journal's viewpoint states that given that U.S. stocks have returned to high levels and valuations are extremely high, uncertainty will not always be a good thing