China Merchants Jinling International: Maintains Meituan-W target price of HKD 165, rating "Buy"

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Jiangyin International released a research report stating that even if the subsidy war continues until the end of the year, Meituan-W (03690) still has a chance to see its operating profit remain flat. The bank believes that the subsidy war is beneficial for user activity, but the adjustment of the structure of the takeaway category and the decline in industry subsidies still need to be observed for stickiness. The operation and scheduling on the merchant and rider sides remain core to maintaining market share. Meituan's takeaway still has a leading advantage and has a high probability of maintaining market share, with a target price of HKD 165 and a "Buy" rating.

Jiangyin International's main points are as follows:

Meituan's takeaway daily average order/peak ratio is about 2/3 this season

On July 5, 2025, Meituan announced that its daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 120 million, with over 100 million for catering and over 20 million for Meituan Flash Purchase. Compared to previous years, Meituan's catering takeaway peak has been in August, driven by seasonal activities such as "the first cup of milk tea in autumn," "Qixi Festival," and "520." The peak in July 2025 came from the industry subsidy war, where Meituan was the first to break the 100 million daily order peak after Alibaba announced a 50 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) investment in Taobao Flash Purchase. From 2020 to 2024, Meituan's takeaway daily order peak rose from 40 million to 98 million. In the third quarter of 2025, considering the peak breakthrough compared to previous higher subsidy investments, the bank estimates that the quarterly average/peak ratio may be around 65%, with a daily average order volume of about 75 million, a year-on-year growth rate of 11-12%.

Takeaway subsidies increased in June, expected CLC revenue to grow by 10% year-on-year

The bank judges that although competition in the takeaway market has intensified, Meituan's takeaway subsidy investment in the second quarter should still focus on certain competitive categories in medium to high-tier cities. The bank estimates that with about 45% of order volume subsidies doubling, the growth rate of catering takeaway order volume may increase from the previously expected mid-to-high single digits to 10%, with a daily average order volume of 64.8 million orders and an average profit per order of about 1.2-1.3 yuan. Considering that Flash Purchase maintains a slightly over 30% order volume growth rate, it is expected that the daily average order volume for instant delivery will reach 77 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and CLC revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, with new business maintaining previous expectations, with revenue expected to grow by 22%.

The subsidy war that started in early Q3 may drive double-digit year-on-year growth in daily orders

Meituan's in-store services still maintain a leading position. Considering the high base effect from the peak season in Q2 and the costs of rider subsidies during the summer in Q3, which may also be important influencing factors for subsequent subsidy rhythms, it is expected that CLC revenue growth in Q3 may remain at 10%. At the same time, the closure of loss-making areas in Meituan Preferred may release about 3-4 billion yuan in losses, supplementing subsequent takeaway subsidy investments