Etsy Q2 2025 Earnings Preview: GMS Under Macro Pressure
Etsy is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, with consensus estimates of EPS at $0.48 and revenue at $647.4 million, indicating flat revenue and 17% EPS growth. Shares have risen 60% since April but remain below their 52-week high. Investors are keen to see if Etsy can boost Gross Merchandise Sales after last year's stagnation, with key indicators including active-buyer counts and ad conversion rates. Management aims to maintain a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin, while guidance on cost discipline and ad monetization will be crucial.
Etsy reports before the bell on July 30. Consensus targets point to EPS $0.48 and revenue $647.4 million, implying flat revenue and about 17% EPS growth. Shares are up approximately 60% since the April 2025 low and sit just below the 52-week high of $66.31, though still far from the November 2021 peak of $307.75. The shares have been under pressure since the pandemic, but tariffs on imported goods could renew interest in Etsy's US-made handmade offerings and give the company a second life.
Investors will watch whether Etsy can reignite Gross Merchandise Sales after last year's flat revenue. Signals include active-buyer and active-seller counts (both trending lower), conversion from Offsite Ads, and any change in the 23% take-rate logged in Q1. Management aims to hold adjusted EBITDA margin near the 25% level despite marketing spend and higher payment-processing fees. Guidance on cost discipline and ad monetization will be key. Strong FCF conversion or incremental share-repurchase authorization could support the stock's 40 forward P/E, but a soft GMS print or weaker buyer engagement may outweigh an earnings beat.
