Liu Yuhui: The anti-involution price effect will emerge, and the Chinese index reaching 4000 points is also a natural progression. There are three directions for bull stocks

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on July 29, renowned economist Liu Yuhui stated during a live broadcast that China is currently in a relatively sensitive time window of the Merrill Lynch investment clock, at a sensitive port that the clock quadrant is about to cross. In the second half of the year, it is very likely to leave the deflation quadrant, and the investment clock will rotate. He firmly believes that the effects of this anti-involution will definitely emerge, so he is optimistic about the stock market and the A-share market. If the price effect truly materializes, it would be reasonable for the Chinese index to surpass 4000 points.

Liu Yuhui is confident that the effects of this anti-involution will definitely emerge. Once the price effect truly manifests, the parts that will directly benefit and gain the strongest momentum will definitely be pro-cyclical assets. Pro-cyclical assets have a relatively high weight in the A-share market, so once the price elasticity momentum kicks in, it will significantly elevate the entire A-share index. This is why it is said that reaching last year's peak is basically a certainty, and surpassing the previous peak or even reaching higher levels is possible. It may not take long; if the price effect truly materializes, it would be reasonable for the Chinese index to surpass 4000 points.

From the perspective of short-term momentum in the A-share market in the second half of the year, due to the impending shift in the investment clock, pro-cyclical assets will definitely see excess returns. Judging from short-term price momentum changes, and from the perspective of industrial trends and medium to long-term views, it is essential to observe industrial trends and the logic of technological advancement.

From this logic, Liu Yuhui believes that the future emergence of major bull stocks will mainly focus on three industrial directions.

The first is the industrial trend direction: RDA logic, that is, data assets on the blockchain. This chain refers to blockchain, and RDA means the assetization of data factors, monetizing data factors. As global technological advancement enters the era of AI computing and supercomputing, data assets are the most critical production factor in the AI economy. The assetization and monetization of factors can only be achieved through blockchain and encryption, namely RDA. RDA represents real data assets, and China will definitely strengthen efforts to promote RDA. Only by rapidly utilizing blockchain technology to put data on the chain can the security and legality of data assets be ensured, allowing data to become assets, enter balance sheets, and generate credit.

The second direction is the circular economy. How can China break through the energy bottleneck through the circular economy? In his view, the energy bottleneck poses a much greater threat than the chip bottleneck. Geographical endowments determine that China is a resource-scarce economy, and this direction must be broken through relying on technological innovation. China relies on overseas sources for 70% or more of its crude oil, and from a geopolitical perspective, the US and China are competing at various levels, with the vulnerability exposed significantly at the energy bottleneck.

China will invest significant efforts from the perspective of the circular economy, such as converting waste plastics into alternative oil products, turning waste plastics into oil, and cracking oil into petrochemical substitutes. China will definitely make significant technological breakthroughs; only in this way can it break free from high energy dependence and release geopolitical strategic space. Therefore, the circular economy will also produce very strong companies. China needs to formulate the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the circular economy will definitely be a direction of high importance at the national strategic level.

The third is the industrialization direction of solid-state batteries. In the past five years, China's new energy sector has risen sharply, achieving global dominance. From batteries to complete vehicles, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, China has rapidly emerged. Moving forward, if China wants to take the lead in the low-altitude economy and infrastructure sectors globally, a key point is that solid-state batteries must occupy a leading position in the world. Coupled with global dominance in electromechanical fields, this will converge into the low-altitude and robotics industries In the next two years, we may see the large-scale commercialization and industrialization of solid-state batteries, which represents a significant industrial chain. If solid-state batteries succeed, low-altitude drones will be an unprecedented breakthrough, all relying on solid-state batteries for support. This timeline may accelerate quickly, as China's solid-state battery industrialization is already leading globally, likely giving rise to a new batch of very strong companies and industrial chains in the next two years.

Regarding the United States, Liu Yuhui believes that the fundamental problem today is the risk of collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. An increasingly aging and disillusioned body, which is the dollar and U.S. Treasury bond fiat currency system, is on the brink of collapse. At this time, through technology—specifically stem cell technology, which refers to the cryptocurrency market on the blockchain—cells are rapidly dividing and expanding. If stem cells are injected into an aging body, it may be possible to rejuvenate it. Therefore, stablecoins and blockchain represent an attempt at self-redemption for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

Regarding gold, Liu Yuhui stated that gold corresponds to the long-term historical strategic competition of the G2 in this era's script. If you believe that the confrontation between the two major powers of G2 is a long-term historical process, it may take two to three decades to determine a winner, and this round of the gold bull market will last longer and rise more than any previous instance in history, possibly exceeding people's imagination. As long as this broader context exists, gold is the best market for regular investments. Using a ten-year time scale, it will at least be the best investment asset for the next decade