关税效应持续发酵，欧盟对美出口创两年新低

The drag effect of U.S. trade tariffs is increasingly evident in Europe. Data shows that EU exports to the U.S. have seen a significant decline, reaching a new low since the end of 2023, leading to a sharp contraction in its overall trade surplus and casting a shadow over Europe's economic growth prospects.

According to data released by Eurostat on Monday, in June this year, exports from the 27 EU countries to the U.S. fell by 10% year-on-year, to just over 40 billion euros (approximately 46.8 billion dollars), the lowest level in two years. This data highlights the direct impact of the tariff policy of the Trump administration on transatlantic trade.

The decline in exports has caused the EU's overall trade surplus to plummet from 12.7 billion euros a month ago to 1.8 billion euros in June. Prior to this decline, EU exports to the U.S. had surged to a historic high of nearly 72 billion euros in March, as U.S. importers stockpiled goods ahead of the impending tariff measures announced by the Trump administration.

Currently, the EU does not seem in a hurry to take countermeasures. EU spokesperson Olof Gill stated last week that a joint statement detailing the agreement should be reached "soon." According to [CCTV News](https://news.cctv.com/2025/08/05/ARTInb6fgAS5k4zpzRAyrD8Z250804.shtml#:~:text=%E5%BD%93%E5%9C%B0%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B44%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%8C%E6%80%BB%E5%8F%B0%E8%AE%B0%E8%80%85%E8%8E%B7%E6%82%89%EF%BC%8C%E6%AC%A7%E7%9B%9F%E5%A7%94%E5%91%98%E4%BC%9A%E5%8F%91%E8%A8%80%E4%BA%BA%E5%BD%93%E5%A4%A9%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA%EF%BC%8C%E6%A0%B9%E6%8D%AE%E6%AC%A7%E7%9B%9F%E4%B8%8E%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E8%BE%BE%E6%88%90%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%EF%BC%8C%E6%AC%A7%E7%9B%9F%E5%B0%86%E5%9C%A86%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E5%86%85%E6%9A%82%E5%81%9C%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD%E9%92%88%E5%AF%B9%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%A4%E9%A1%B9%E5%8F%8D%E5%88%B6%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E3%80%82,%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E6%80%BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%89%B9%E6%9C%97%E6%99%AE%E5%92%8C%E6%AC%A7%E7%9B%9F%E5%A7%94%E5%91%98%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E5%B8%AD%E5%86%AF%E5%BE%B7%E8%8E%B1%E6%81%A9%E4%BA%8E On July 27, a non-formal meeting was held in Suqian, England, where Trudy Dai announced the establishment of a new trade agreement with the United States. According to the agreement reached between the European Union and the United States, the EU will suspend the implementation of two countermeasures against U.S. tariffs for six months.

Specific Industries Under Pressure, Global Trade Continues to Chill

The impact of tariffs is widely penetrating key industries and core economies in Europe. The contraction of the trade surplus in June was particularly dragged down by weak chemical exports, which are an important export sector for many European economies.

As one of Europe's traditional industrial powerhouses and a major global exporter, Germany has seen a continuous decline in exports to the U.S. in recent months, which not only puts pressure on factory output but also limits overall economic growth. Additionally, the strengthening euro further weakens demand for European goods, exacerbating the challenges faced by exports.

Ralph Solveen, an economist at Frankfurt Commercial Bank, warned:

“The environment for foreign trade remains below average.”

NgOzi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, stated:

“The full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding.”

Despite facing tariff shocks, the Eurozone economy still achieved a growth of 0.1% in the second quarter, demonstrating stronger resilience than expected. However, analysts are cautious about the future export outlook, believing that its recovery path is fraught with challenges.

Carsten Brzesk, head of macro at ING, believes that under the pressure of a strong euro and widespread uncertainty, exports may continue to be under pressure. He stated:

“It is currently difficult to see exports quickly becoming a strong engine for European growth again.”