杰罗姆·鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔时刻：加密货币交易员预计 2025 年降息的概率为 85%，而摩根士丹利则认为美联储将保持观望

Ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's pivotal Jackson Hole address on Friday, cryptocurrency bettors are pricing in more than an 80% chance that the central bank cuts interest rates this year.

Polymarket Bettors Confident Of Rate Cuts

On the prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood that the Fed loosens its monetary policy on or before Dec. 31 stood at 85% at the time of writing. Nearly $990,000 has already been wagered on the bet.

Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tracker showed a 75% chance of a 25 basis-point cut in next month's meeting, down from 92% a week ago.

Polymarket, based on Polygon POL/USD, allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC USDC/USD. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.

What Are Major Banks Saying?

These odds contrasted sharply with Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Gapen, who said in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance that the Fed will "remain on the sideline" for the rest of the year.

In contrast, other banking titans such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs expect the central bank to slash interest rates in the upcoming September meeting.

The Backdrop

U.S. producer prices surged in July at the sharpest pace since mid-2022, reigniting concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on inflation. Investors scaled back their expectations after cooler-than-expected consumer inflation bolstered hopes of rate cuts.

The sentiment was further soured after the Fed indicated that inflation risks remain "considerable" due to the uncertain impact of trade tariffs.

Amid this backdrop, Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium holds great significance for the direction of monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-setting arm of the Fed, last cut interest rates in December 2024 by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

• Mohamed El-Erian Slams ‘Backward-Looking’ Powell, Question’s Fed’s 2% Inflation Target—’Being Too Late’

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