LIVE MARKETS-Auto insurance is shifting gears, not stalling out
US equity index futures are modestly up, with the Euro STOXX 600 index rising about 0.2%. Analysts at Bank of America suggest that the auto insurance industry is evolving rather than declining due to the rise of self-driving cars. Major insurers like Progressive and Allstate are expected to benefit, with Progressive reporting a 10% profit increase in Q1. The top five insurers control 66% of the market, and as liability shifts from drivers to manufacturers, profitability may improve for insurers. Overall, auto insurance is adapting to changes in the industry.
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AUTO INSURANCE IS SHIFTING GEARS, NOT STALLING OUT
For years, investors have worried that self-driving cars would make auto insurance obsolete. After all, if the car drives itself, who’s to blame in an accident? And if there’s no blame, why buy insurance?
But analysts at Bank of America say the industry isn’t dying, it’s evolving. And the biggest beneficiaries could be large insurers like Progressive (PGR.N) and Allstate (ALL.N) .
Both stocks have been resilient in 2025. Progressive is up 3.9% year-to-date, while Allstate has gained 7.1%, outpacing broader industry peers.
“Progressive is already the economies of scale leader,” BofA writes, pointing to its low expense ratio and fast-growing customer base.
The top five insurers now control 66% of the market, while nearly 200 smaller carriers each hold less than 1% share. “Efficiency leaders will triumph,” the note adds.
As cars become more autonomous, liability may shift from drivers to manufacturers. That’s actually good news for insurers. “The auto insurance industry tends to lose money on liability protection,” analysts note. Offloading that risk to commercial carriers could improve profitability.
Meanwhile, accidents haven’t disappeared, and when they do happen, they’re more expensive. “Severity has surged,” BofA says, due to tech-heavy vehicles and longer repair times.
Even Tesla’s (TSLA.O) insurance offering isn’t seen as a major threat. “We do not believe automobile manufacturers have a desire to be in the low-margin, highly regulated and high capital requirement business of providing auto insurance.”
In April, insurer Progressive reported a 10% jump in first-quarter profit, helped by resilient demand for its auto insurance policies and a 20% surge in new personal auto applications.
So, while the road ahead may be filled with smarter cars and shifting responsibilities, auto insurance isn’t disappearing, it’s adapting.
(Rashika Singh)
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