<p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>華爾街策略師表示，通貨再膨脹和經濟過熱將有利於股票</p>
<p>股市仍未考慮美聯儲降息的影響。</p>
<p>“買傳聞，賣事實” 是華爾街上最常被重複的格言之一，但摩根士丹利策略師邁克·威爾遜表示應忽略這一點，因為在降息週期的過程中，股市回報表現強勁。</p>
<p>威爾遜建議投資者在九月份常常出現的回調中買入，並指出債券市場已經預期到到 2026 年底將大約有五次每次 25 個基點的降息。他的研究發現，在這種環境下，股票表現良好。此外，估值通常受到較低政策利率的支撐（未來收益流以較低的利率折現，從而創造出更高的估值），以及盈利增長高於長期中位數的時期。</p>
<p>股票通常被視為對抗通脹的工具，威爾遜強調了股票回報與通脹預期之間的相關性增加，通脹預期是名義債券收益率與同期限通脹掛鈎債券收益率之間的差異。對威爾遜而言，這表明股市預期白宮將在降息的同時推動經濟過熱。</p>
<p>這種 “再膨脹” 策略讓威爾遜想起特朗普的第一任期。</p>
<p>根據摩根士丹利的説法，股票與通脹預期之間的強正相關性是早期週期的指標。</p>
<p>不過，威爾遜強調，這種政策組合並非沒有風險。九月份股票的季節性疲軟是眾所周知的，但其他風險包括未來幾個月消費者物價指數的上升，可能會減少交易者預期的降息次數。</p>
<p>另一個可能的脆弱性可能是非常疲軟的就業數據，這可能重新喚起對經濟增長的擔憂。不過，威爾遜指出，如果市場開始預期更多的降息而不是更少，這實際上可能對股票是利好。</p>
<p>自四月解放日以來，威爾遜對美國股票持樂觀態度，主要是因為盈利修正的反彈以及美元 DXY 走弱帶來的現金流預期和經營槓桿的順風。人工智能等其他主題以及閒置現金的税收節省進一步增強了樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>他還將美國企業中一位新 CEO 的到來與在實施新戰略之前先拋出壞消息進行比較，類似於特朗普在推出減税和放松管制等增長積極措施之前，明顯前置了增長負面政策（如 DOGE 和關税）。</p>
<p>報告特別強調小盤股 RUT 是近期表現強勁的一個領域，無論是絕對錶現還是相對錶現，但他説：“這種超額表現在長期背景下幾乎不明顯。” 威爾遜預測小盤股有望超越表現，特別是如果美聯儲表現出準備在市場定價之前採取行動。</p>
<p>標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 今年上漲了 10%，儘管股市期貨在週二指向華爾街開盤時的虧損。</p>
<p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>

摩根士丹利

<p>摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜認為，股市尚未反映預期美聯儲降息的積極影響。他建議投資者在市場回調時買入，並指出股票在降息週期中通常表現良好。威爾遜強調了股票回報與通脹預期之間的強相關性，暗示了對股票的有利環境。然而，他警告存在風險，包括可能影響降息預期的經濟指標疲軟。威爾遜對美國股票，特別是小盤股保持樂觀，認為市場正在適應這些變化</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>Reflation and running the economy hot will be good for stocks, says Wall Street strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街策略師表示，通貨再膨脹和經濟過熱將有利於股票</p>
</div><p>The stock market still hasn't priced in impact of Fed interest-rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市仍未考慮美聯儲降息的影響。</p>
</div><p>Buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact is one of the most oft-repeated adages on Wall Street, but Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says to ignore it as stock-market returns are strong during the process of the rate-cutting cycle itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“買傳聞，賣事實” 是華爾街上最常被重複的格言之一，但摩根士丹利策略師邁克·威爾遜表示應忽略這一點，因為在降息週期的過程中，股市回報表現強勁。</p>
</div><p>Wilson, in recommending that investors buy any of the dips that September often brings, points out that bond markets are already anticipating roughly five cuts of 25 basis points (FF00) each by the end of 2026. His research finds that stocks perform well during that kind of environment . Moreover, valuations are generally underpinned by lower policy rates (future earnings streams are discounted at a lower rate, creating higher valuations) and periods where earnings growth is above the long-term median.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威爾遜建議投資者在九月份常常出現的回調中買入，並指出債券市場已經預期到到 2026 年底將大約有五次每次 25 個基點的降息。他的研究發現，在這種環境下，股票表現良好。此外，估值通常受到較低政策利率的支撐（未來收益流以較低的利率折現，從而創造出更高的估值），以及盈利增長高於長期中位數的時期。</p>
</div><p>Stocks are often considered an inflation hedge and Wilson highlights the increased correlation between equity returns and inflation breakevens, which is the difference between nominal bond yields and those offered by inflation-linked bonds of the same maturity. For Wilson, this suggests the stock market anticipates the White House will run the economy hot while cutting rates at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票通常被視為對抗通脹的工具，威爾遜強調了股票回報與通脹預期之間的相關性增加，通脹預期是名義債券收益率與同期限通脹掛鈎債券收益率之間的差異。對威爾遜而言，這表明股市預期白宮將在降息的同時推動經濟過熱。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;reflation&#34; strategy very much reminds Wilson of Trump's first term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種 “再膨脹” 策略讓威爾遜想起特朗普的第一任期。</p>
</div><p>A strong positive correlation between stocks and inflation breakevens is an early-cycle indicator, according to Morgan Stanley.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據摩根士丹利的説法，股票與通脹預期之間的強正相關性是早期週期的指標。</p>
</div><p>Wilson is at pains to stress, though, that the policy mix is not without risk. That September has weak seasonality for stocks is well-established but other risks include hotter consumer price index readings in coming months that could potentially reduce the number of rate cuts that traders can expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，威爾遜強調，這種政策組合並非沒有風險。九月份股票的季節性疲軟是眾所周知的，但其他風險包括未來幾個月消費者物價指數的上升，可能會減少交易者預期的降息次數。</p>
</div><p>Another possible vulnerability might be a very weak payrolls number that reawakens growth fears. Wilson makes the point, though, that this could actually be bullish for stocks if the markets then start discounting more rate cuts, not fewer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個可能的脆弱性可能是非常疲軟的就業數據，這可能重新喚起對經濟增長的擔憂。不過，威爾遜指出，如果市場開始預期更多的降息而不是更少，這實際上可能對股票是利好。</p>
</div><p>Wilson has been bullish on U.S. stocks since Liberation Day in April, chiefly because of rebounding earnings revisions and the tailwind for cashflow expectations and operating leverage provided by dollar DXY weakness. Other themes like AI and the extent of sidelined cash tax savings fostered even more optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自四月解放日以來，威爾遜對美國股票持樂觀態度，主要是因為盈利修正的反彈以及美元 DXY 走弱帶來的現金流預期和經營槓桿的順風。人工智能等其他主題以及閒置現金的税收節省進一步增強了樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>He also draws an interesting comparison between a new CEO arriving somewhere in corporate America and kitchen-sinking bad news before implementing a new strategy, and Trump's apparent front-loading of growth-negative policies (like DOGE and tariffs) before the introduction of growth-positive measures like tax cuts and deregulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還將美國企業中一位新 CEO 的到來與在實施新戰略之前先拋出壞消息進行比較，類似於特朗普在推出減税和放松管制等增長積極措施之前，明顯前置了增長負面政策（如 DOGE 和關税）。</p>
</div><p>The report specifically highlights small-cap stocks RUT as one area where recent performance, both absolute and relative, has been strong but &#34;this outperformance is hardly noticeable in a longer-term context,&#34; he says. WIlson predicts that small caps are set up to outperform, especially if the Fed demonstrates a preparedness to get ahead of market pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告特別強調小盤股 RUT 是近期表現強勁的一個領域，無論是絕對錶現還是相對錶現，但他説：“這種超額表現在長期背景下幾乎不明顯。” 威爾遜預測小盤股有望超越表現，特別是如果美聯儲表現出準備在市場定價之前採取行動。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 SPX has gained 10% this year, though stock-market futures pointed to opening losses on Wall Street on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 指數 SPX 今年上漲了 10%，儘管股市期貨在週二指向華爾街開盤時的虧損。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱爾斯·裏默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div>

The stock market still hasn't priced in the positive impact from interest-rate cuts, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson