U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Novo Nordisk Gains in Pre-Market

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 18 (Thursday) before the market opens, U.S. stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.65%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.81%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.09%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.35%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.29%, the French CAC40 index is up 1.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.55%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.34%, priced at $64.27 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.28%, priced at $68.14 per barrel.

Market News

The Fed's rate cut winds are here! Small-cap stocks return to market focus. For most of this year, when U.S. stocks have seen record highs, small-cap stocks seemed to be on the sidelines. Now, with expectations of a Fed rate cut heating up, the market's "animal spirits" have fully returned, and small-cap stocks have finally joined this investment feast briefly, nearly ending the prolonged underperformance against the S&P 500 since the pandemic. The Russell 2000 index rose 2.1% to 2453.36 points on Wednesday, crossing its historical closing high for the first time since November 2021. The index ultimately closed up 0.2%. Although it has not yet broken through the historical high set in November 2021, the brief surge after the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, along with its recent outperformance against the S&P 500 driven by expectations of a rate cut, indicates that the market is increasingly favoring small-cap stocks in the context of rate cuts.

The Fed's rate cut adds to the chaos! The market returns to a "data-dependent" mode. After the Fed's rate cut, the market typically experiences volatility, but on Thursday morning, investors seemed genuinely puzzled by the signals released by the central bank. Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated that due to the uncertainty regarding how many more rate cuts will be implemented in the coming year, investors may face greater market volatility. "There are significant differences in views within the Fed regarding policy in 2026, which could mean increased volatility in financial markets next year." "Now, we all return to a 'data-dependent' mode, with the first focus being on the initial jobless claims data released on Thursday." However, amidst the chaos, one thing is very clear: the Fed is increasingly concerned about the weakness in the U.S. labor market Why is the market so disappointed with the interest rate cut? Because Powell's message was "reluctant and not enough." Although the Federal Reserve carried out its first interest rate cut of the year as scheduled, the signals it sent were far from the "dovish feast" the market expected, even causing unease among investors. Some investors are now less certain that a rapid shift to lower borrowing costs will materialize, which could dampen the optimistic sentiment that the stock and bond markets would receive a strong boost from looser policies—especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell described Thursday morning's decision as a "risk management-style rate cut," leading to a swift cooling of sentiment in the stock market. Adding to the uncertainty is the significant divergence of views within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rates.

U.S. CEOs criticize Trump's policies behind closed doors! 71% of executives say tariffs are destroying businesses. Business leaders often praise the Trump administration and its policies in public, but their mood is much more somber in closed-door meetings. At a CEO and executive meeting convened by Yale School of Management on Wednesday, dozens of American business leaders spoke candidly about their concerns regarding tariffs, immigration, foreign policy issues, and what many describe as an increasingly chaotic and unmanageable business environment. In a series of voting questions, the executives expressed their frustration. When asked whether tariffs are beneficial or harmful to businesses, 71% of respondents said these taxes are destructive. Another question focused on the legality of tariffs, with about three-quarters of respondents stating that the court's ruling deeming the tariffs illegal was correct.

Deutsche Bank raises its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000, expecting gold prices to rise but not fall. Deutsche Bank expects that due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, gold will continue its record-breaking rally, with the average gold price reaching $4,000 per ounce by 2026. The bank's precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh stated that the new average gold price expectation for 2026 (up from the previous $3,700) aligns with expectations of rising gold support levels; fair value models indicate that, accounting for excess demand from central banks, there is still room for gold prices to rise.

Individual Stock News

Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) jumps pre-market, Ozempic shows better cardiovascular protection than Eli Lilly's old drug. Novo Nordisk's diabetes blockbuster Ozempic outperformed Eli Lilly's older drug Trulicity in a real-world study involving some U.S. patients. Novo Nordisk reported that Medicare patients taking Ozempic had a 23% lower risk of heart attack, stroke, or death compared to those taking Trulicity. As of the time of writing, Novo Nordisk's stock rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Is the U.S. stock market bull run continuing or is a trap approaching? Tonight's FedEx (FDX.US) earnings report will reveal the answer. FedEx's earnings report has become an important signal to validate the U.S. stock market's upward trend. Dow Theory emphasizes that the industrial and transportation indices must confirm each other, but this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached new highs while the transportation sector has been sluggish, showing a historically rare divergence. The express delivery sector has been impacted by tariffs and the cancellation of the "de minimis tax exemption," leading to significant declines in the stock prices of FedEx and United Parcel Service. Although market pessimism has been fully reflected in valuations, the earnings report may provide a rebound opportunity, but the overall environment still carries downside risks, with Dow Theory suggesting that the bull market may be a trap Bullish (BLSH.US) reports impressive first quarterly results, with both performance and guidance exceeding expectations. Data shows that Bullish's second-quarter earnings per share reached $0.93, a significant improvement from -$1.03 in the same period last year, and far exceeding the market expectation of -$0.05. Revenue was $57 million, although lower than last year's $60.7 million, it surpassed the market expectation of $55.8 million. Looking ahead, the company expects adjusted revenue to reach $69 million to $76 million in the third quarter of 2025, well above the average analyst forecast of $57.1 million; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $25 million to $28 million; and trading volume is expected to reach $133 billion to $142 billion. As of the time of publication, Bullish's stock rose nearly 9% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Palantir (PLTR.US) invests £1.5 billion to strengthen its presence in the UK market, securing a £750 million contract with the Ministry of Defence. Sources reveal that Palantir is enhancing its ties with the UK, committing to invest £1.5 billion in the country while reaching an agreement with the UK Ministry of Defence to expand the use of its artificial intelligence software. The sources indicated that Palantir is set to finalize a five-year agreement worth £750 million with the Ministry of Defence by the end of the year. The sources added that this new agreement will replace the soon-to-expire current agreement—a three-year arrangement worth £75 million.

Roche (RHHBY.US) spends $3.5 billion to acquire 89bio (ETNB.US), strengthening its position in the weight loss drug market. Roche will acquire the biopharmaceutical company 89bio for up to $3.5 billion, marking the Swiss pharmaceutical company's latest move into the weight loss drug and related therapies market. Roche stated that 89bio, based in San Francisco, is developing innovative therapies for liver and cardiovascular metabolic diseases. The key drug in late-stage development is pegozafermin, which is expected to become the best treatment for moderate to severe metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASH). MASH is one of the most common complications of obesity. As of the time of publication, 89bio's stock surged nearly 84% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Breakthrough in innovative drugs! Arvinas (ARVN.US) collaborates with Pfizer (PFE.US) to advance the third-party commercialization of "breast cancer ER degrader." The American biotech newcomer Arvinas and its partner Pfizer have decided to license the commercialization rights of the groundbreaking innovative drug vepdegestrant—specifically, to transfer the commercialization rights of this drug, which is an investigational estrogen receptor protein degrader for breast cancer. Arvinas stated that the decision to license commercialization to a third party "is the best path forward to unlock the full value of vepdegestrant and ensure timely market supply upon regulatory approval." As of the time of publication, Arvinas's stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 13