Is Venture Global (NYSE:VG) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE:VG) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

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When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

How Much Debt Does Venture Global Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2025 Venture Global had debt of US$30.1b, up from US$26.9b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$2.33b in cash leading to net debt of about US$27.7b.

A Look At Venture Global's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Venture Global had liabilities of US$2.86b due within a year, and liabilities of US$33.2b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$2.33b and US$673.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$33.1b.

This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$35.4b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

View our latest analysis for Venture Global

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Weak interest cover of 2.0 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.8 hit our confidence in Venture Global like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Notably, Venture Global's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Venture Global's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Venture Global burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Venture Global's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that Venture Global's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Venture Global .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.