Ethereum Analyst Says 'October Is Often the Ignition' as ETH Price Reclaims $4K
Ethereum's price has reclaimed the $4,200 mark, climbing 3.5% in 24 hours, with exchange reserves at their lowest since 2016. Analysts highlight three factors for this decline: self-custody, staking, and wallet transfers. DEX activity surged 47% to $33.9 billion, indicating potential price rallies. Historically, October has been bullish for ETH, averaging 4.77% gains, suggesting a possible rise to $4,300. Analysts draw parallels to 2020, anticipating a significant Q4 rally.
ETH Supply Faces Historic Decline on Exchanges
Ethereum climbed 3.5% over the past 24 hours, retesting the $4,200 zone. Onchain data shows exchange reserves at their lowest levels since 2016, signaling growing accumulation.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoMe flagged three drivers behind the drain: investors moving ETH into self-custody, staking activity, and wallet transfers. Exchange outflows are now comparable to levels seen at the height of the 2022 bear market.
"Is ETH about to boom?" CryptoMe asked in a weekend note. "When demand triggers, the rally starts. Falling reserves prepare the ground for that rally."
Ethereum DEX Activity Climbs 47%
The rally coincides with renewed activity on Ethereum-based DEXs. Weekly volumes jumped 47% to $33.9 billion, according to DefiLlama, with Maverick Protocol and Uniswap seeing the biggest gains.
Ethereum competitors lagged. Solana's (SOL-USD) DEX activity rose just 6% and BNB's (BNB-USD) climbed 8.3% over the same period.
Historically, spikes in Ethereum DEX volumes have foreshadowed price rallies. In summer 2024, ETH nearly doubled as weekly DEX activity surged to $40 billion.
ETH Price Is Poised for an October "Pump"
ETH shed 6% in September, matching seasonal trends. But October tells a different story: CoinGlass data shows Ethereum averages 4.77% monthly gains, which would imply a move toward $4,300.
"Ethereum monthly returns show a clear pattern that October and beyond is a bullish season," crypto analyst Marzell wrote on X. "October is often the ignition… get ready for the Q4 $ETH pump!"
Analyst Midas agreed, pointing to parallels with 2020. "ETH is repeating the same Q3 2020 pattern," he posted, noting that the setup was followed by a more than 100% rally into year-end.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is sitting at $4,204.20.
