Tesla - The first generation "influencer stock" makes a strong comeback!

Tesla is reigniting market enthusiasm. With Elon Musk reaffirming his focus on the company's business and the market's optimistic expectations for the upcoming delivery data, the electric vehicle giant's stock price is experiencing a strong rebound, demonstrating its powerful market appeal as an "original meme stock."

Since the end of August, Tesla's stock price has surged 34%, far exceeding the S&P 500 index's 3% increase during the same period. The core driving force behind this rally stems from investors' anticipation that its third-quarter delivery volume will exceed expectations, along with Musk's increasingly positive stance—he posted on social media platform X that "daddy is very much home" and increased his stake in the company by $1 billion, which the market interpreted as a signal that he will focus more on Tesla's business.

However, this rally is not entirely driven by fundamentals. According to reports from the Wind Trading Desk, Barclays analysts Dan Levy and Josh Cho noted in a report on September 29 that Tesla's strong stock performance is also catalyzed by speculative factors. Massive options trading, retail investors' enthusiasm, and its position as a follower among the "Tech Seven" have collectively amplified market optimism.

This enthusiasm has also exacerbated the disconnect between Tesla's stock price and its short-term profitability. According to Barclays' calculations, the stock's current valuation has reached a staggering 180 times the expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, appearing "full of bubbles." Although delivery data may bring short-term benefits, the market remains skeptical about the sustainability of such high valuations.

CEO's Return and Performance Expectations Boost Stock Price

The market's expectation of Musk refocusing on Tesla's business is a key narrative driving this rebound. Barclays analysts emphasized that Musk's increasing involvement is one of the most significant developments in the past month. In addition to his iconic social media remarks and stock purchases, the market is also eagerly anticipating the annual shareholder meeting (AGM) scheduled for November 6, where ambitious growth plans are expected to be unveiled.

At the same time, positive short-term performance data provides fundamental support for the stock price increase. Barclays expects Tesla's third-quarter delivery volume to be between 465,000 and 470,000 units, significantly higher than the media's reported 435,000 units and Tesla's own compiled market consensus forecast of 443,000 units.

The bank's analysis indicates that the better-than-expected sales trend in the Chinese market in September, along with the inventory depletion in the U.S. market due to the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit policy adjustment, are the main reasons for the anticipated delivery volume exceeding expectations. However, analysts also caution that this positive news may have already been priced in by the market.

Technical Frenzy of the "Original Meme Stock"

In addition to the grand narrative and performance expectations, Tesla's stock price surge also reflects its typical characteristics as an "original meme stock." The Barclays report points out that technical factors played an important role in this rally The phenomenon known as the "Tesla-financial complex" has re-emerged, where massive options trading activity has a disproportionately large impact on stock prices, potentially triggering a "gamma squeeze."

Data shows that in the past two weeks, the average daily nominal trading volume of Tesla options reached approximately $130 billion. Meanwhile, the volume ratio of call options to put options has risen to 1.6 times, higher than the average level of 1.4 times in 2024, reflecting investors' strong willingness to chase upward movements using leverage.

Additionally, retail investors are a significant force for Tesla, with their ownership estimated to exceed 30%. This trading behavior driven by "animal spirits" bears similarities to the trends seen in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Before this round of increases, Tesla had underperformed among the "Tech Seven." As of the end of August 2025, Tesla's stock price had fallen 17% year-to-date, while Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft had risen 30%, 26%, and 20%, respectively.

However, entering September, Tesla's stock price rebounded strongly, becoming the best-performing stock among the "Tech Seven," quickly narrowing the gap with other members. Although Tesla's year-to-date gains still lag behind those of Nvidia and Google, it has successfully surpassed Amazon and Apple. Barclays believes that some funds have rotated from other tech giants into Tesla, constituting another force behind this round of increases.

Valuation and Fundamentals Disconnected

Despite the bullish market sentiment, analysts remain cautious about Tesla's high valuation. A Barclays report compares Tesla's expected price-to-earnings ratio of up to 180 times for 2026 with the S&P 500's level of 23 times, clearly indicating that its valuation is "seriously disconnected" from fundamentals. The report states that although delivery data is positive, the company's overall fundamentals "remain weak."

It is worth noting that the highly anticipated autonomous taxi project has not made substantial progress in recent months, which is one of the key narratives supporting Tesla's long-term high valuation. Barclays maintains a "market perform" rating on Tesla, with a target price of $275, which stands in stark contrast to the stock's current trading price of over $440