Aluminum Rises Toward 3-Year High
Aluminum futures are nearing a three-year high, reaching approximately $2,730 per tonne due to anticipated lower supply. China's revised output growth target for base metals is now 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, down from 5%. This aligns with a cap of 45 million tons on aluminum output, which is expected to be exceeded this year. Additionally, Alcoa plans to close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to declining bauxite grades. Global primary aluminum stocks fell by 55,000 tonnes in September, totaling 413,000 tonnes.
Aluminum futures rose toward $2,730 per tonne in October, testing the highest in three years amid the outlook of lower supply.
Chinese authorities cut their annual output growth target for base metals to an average of 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, compared to the 5% target previously.
The curb was in line with the China's aluminum output cap of 45 million tons, which is set to be breached this year under current capacity, amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign to slow capacity for manufacturers in an effort to control deflationary pressures.
Elsewhere, Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades.
Quick demand for physical aluminum lifted withdrawal requests in global warehouses, with primary aluminum stocks dropping 55,000 tonnes in September to 413,000, although the levels rebounded from monthly lows.
