ICE’s $2 Billion Bet on Prediction Markets Might Change the Case for Investing in ICE
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has announced a significant investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, aiming to diversify its offerings and tap into decentralized finance. This move reflects ICE's strategy to adapt to market demands for real-time data while maintaining strong transaction growth in its core businesses. Despite potential risks from regulatory changes, analysts project a positive long-term outlook for ICE, with revenue forecasts of $11.4 billion and earnings of $4.1 billion by 2028, suggesting a fair value of $201.12 per share, indicating a 28% upside from current levels.
- Earlier this month, Intercontinental Exchange announced an investment of up to US$2 billion into Polymarket, a crypto-based event prediction platform, positioning itself to distribute event-driven data and collaborate on tokenization initiatives.
- This move marks a significant expansion into decentralized finance, highlighting ICE’s intent to diversify beyond traditional exchanges by capitalizing on demand for real-time sentiment and prediction data.
- We'll explore how ICE's entry into decentralized finance and prediction markets could alter its long-term investment narrative.
Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 35 stocks are leading the charge.
Intercontinental Exchange Investment Narrative Recap
To be a shareholder in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), you need to believe in the ongoing global digitization of markets and sustained demand for high-quality, real-time financial data. While ICE’s US$2 billion move into crypto-based prediction markets signals an effort to diversify its platform and futureproof against disruptive technologies, it does not significantly alter the important short-term catalyst, continued strong transaction growth from its core energy and financial markets businesses. The biggest risk remains exposure to cyclical downturns or regulatory changes in major asset classes, not the Polymarket investment itself.
Among ICE’s recent announcements, record Q3 2025 open interest and volume growth stand out most, underscoring the company’s ongoing strength in its traditional trading segments. These robust metrics highlight why many see the expansion into decentralized finance as potentially complementary, rather than risky, for ICE’s short-term trajectory. However, for investors, the bigger picture is still heavily influenced by ...
Read the full narrative on Intercontinental Exchange (it's free!)
Intercontinental Exchange's narrative projects $11.4 billion revenue and $4.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.7% yearly revenue growth and a $1.1 billion earnings increase from $3.0 billion.
Uncover how Intercontinental Exchange's forecasts yield a $201.12 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Seven distinct fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$109 to US$201 per share. While some see upside in ICE’s expanding data and digital market reach, others focus on how risks from regulatory or cyclical pressures could weigh on profitability and growth. Explore these views to challenge your own assumptions.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Intercontinental Exchange - why the stock might be worth 31% less than the current price!
Build Your Own Intercontinental Exchange Narrative
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
- A great starting point for your Intercontinental Exchange research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Intercontinental Exchange research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intercontinental Exchange's overall financial health at a glance.
Curious About Other Options?
Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:
- Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.
- This technology could replace computers: discover 26 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.
- AI is about to change healthcare. These 33 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
