<p><strong>關鍵要點：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如果$110,000 支撐位失守，比特幣面臨向$96,500–$100,000 修正的風險。</li>
<li>鏈上和技術圖形表明這是一個健康的中期調整，而不是完全的趨勢反轉。</li>
</ul>
<p>比特幣在經歷重大週末暴跌後的反彈在週二顯示出減弱的跡象。</p>
<p>這款頂級加密貨幣下跌了 4.65%，降至約$110,000，反映出全球股市因中國對五家與韓國最大造船商相關的美國公司實施限制而下滑，並警告可能進一步報復。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>比特幣的$110,000 水平在 2025 年多次在阻力和支撐之間反轉。早期的拒絕導致了 19%–30% 的下跌，而 7 月後的反彈則推動了 12%–15% 的上漲。</p>
<p>讓我們來看看如果$110,000 支撐位失守，比特幣可能會跌到多低。</p>
<p><strong>比特幣的擴張楔形暗示$100,000</strong></p>
<p>多項分析表明，如果$110,000 支撐位無法維持，比特幣價格向$100,000 下跌的可能性增加。</p>
<p>這包括圖表分析師 BitBull 強調的 “巨型看漲通道”，顯示比特幣價格在一個擴張楔形內波動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>截至週二，比特幣處於修正階段的中間位置，測試了楔形的上趨勢線作為阻力。歷史上，此類修正通常在通道的下趨勢線附近耗盡，這與$100,000-$103,000 區域重合。</p>
<p>該區域還與比特幣的 50 周指數移動平均線（50 周 EMA，紅色波浪表示）和 1.618 斐波那契回撤線對齊，賦予其作為潛在目標區的技術權重。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p><strong>比特幣指標暗示$96,500 目標（或更低）</strong></p>
<p>根據 Glassnode 的 MVRV 極端偏差定價帶，比特幣目前交易在其 +0.5 標準差帶（+0.5σ帶；橙色）以下，接近$119,000。</p>
<p>MVRV 極端偏差定價帶是一個鏈上模型，跟蹤當前市場價格與比特幣的 “公允價值” 之間的偏差，基於大多數持有者為其幣支付的價格（實現價格）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>歷史上，當比特幣失去這個 +0.5σ帶作為支撐時，往往會迴歸到均值帶（黃色），目前大約在$96,500。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月到 2025 年 4 月的修正期間，發生了類似的 “均值迴歸” 階段，當時比特幣從 +0.5σ水平（約 66,980）下跌到均值帶（約$53,900），然後迅速反彈。</p>
<p>這個分形表明當前的設置可能只是更廣泛牛市中的另一個降温階段，是為了清除過度槓桿和過熱估值的重置，為下一輪上漲做準備。</p>
<p>然而，跌破均值迴歸目標可能會觸發熊市，下一下行目標約為$74,000。</p>
<p>本文不包含投資建議或推薦。每項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做出決策時應進行自己的研究。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣面臨向 96,500 美元至 100,000 美元修正的風險，如果 110,000 美元的支撐位失效。近期的鏈上數據和技術圖形表明，這是一個週期中期的調整，而非完全的趨勢反轉。在比特幣下跌 4.65% 至約 110,000 美元后，分析師建議，如果這一支撐位被突破，比特幣可能會進一步下跌，潛在地達到 100,000 美元甚至 96,500 美元。跌破這一水平可能會標誌着熊市的到來，目標價位在 74,000 美元左右。此分析不構成投資建議</p>

<p><strong>Key takeaways:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關鍵要點：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin risks a correction toward $96,500–$100,000 if the $110,000 support fails.</li>
<li>Onchain and technical patterns suggest a healthy mid-cycle reset, not a full trend reversal.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果$110,000 支撐位失守，比特幣面臨向$96,500–$100,000 修正的風險。</li>
<li>鏈上和技術圖形表明這是一個健康的中期調整，而不是完全的趨勢反轉。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s  rebound after a major weekend plunge showed signs of fading on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在經歷重大週末暴跌後的反彈在週二顯示出減弱的跡象。</p>
</div><p>The top crypto dipped 4.65% to around $110,000, mirroring a global equity slump after China imposed restrictions on five US firms linked to South Korea’s largest shipbuilder, warning of further retaliation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這款頂級加密貨幣下跌了 4.65%，降至約$110,000，反映出全球股市因中國對五家與韓國最大造船商相關的美國公司實施限制而下滑，並警告可能進一步報復。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-fdbb4d8491549b617a31d78d08dbb408-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin’s $110,000 level has repeatedly flipped between resistance and support in 2025. Earlier rejections triggered 19–30% declines, while post-July rebounds from this zone fueled 12–15% rallies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的$110,000 水平在 2025 年多次在阻力和支撐之間反轉。早期的拒絕導致了 19%–30% 的下跌，而 7 月後的反彈則推動了 12%–15% 的上漲。</p>
</div><p>Let’s examine how low BTC could go if the $110,000 support fails.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來看看如果$110,000 支撐位失守，比特幣可能會跌到多低。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin's broadening wedge hints at $100,000</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣的擴張楔形暗示$100,000</strong></p>
</div><p>Multiple analyses suggest that the odds of the BTC price declining toward $100,000 increase if the $110,000 support level fails to hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多項分析表明，如果$110,000 支撐位無法維持，比特幣價格向$100,000 下跌的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>That includes a “giant bullish channel” highlighted by chartist BitBull, which showed BTC price fluctuating inside a broadening wedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這包括圖表分析師 BitBull 強調的 “巨型看漲通道”，顯示比特幣價格在一個擴張楔形內波動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-48ba7023c608dbad3579ac0dbc595ab0-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was in the middle of a correction stage after testing the wedge’s upper trendline as resistance. Historically, such corrections exhausted near the channel’s lower trendline, which coincides with the $100,000-$103,000 area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至週二，比特幣處於修正階段的中間位置，測試了楔形的上趨勢線作為阻力。歷史上，此類修正通常在通道的下趨勢線附近耗盡，這與$100,000-$103,000 區域重合。</p>
</div><p>This region also aligns with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, represented by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line, lending technical weight to it as a potential target zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該區域還與比特幣的 50 周指數移動平均線（50 周 EMA，紅色波浪表示）和 1.618 斐波那契回撤線對齊，賦予其作為潛在目標區的技術權重。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-30fe9358d459a7549d9c69ef2b607bac-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p><strong>BTC metric suggests $96,500 target (or worse)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特幣指標暗示$96,500 目標（或更低）</strong></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin is now trading below its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band; orange) near $119,000, according to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Glassnode 的 MVRV 極端偏差定價帶，比特幣目前交易在其 +0.5 標準差帶（+0.5σ帶；橙色）以下，接近$119,000。</p>
</div><p>The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an onchain model that tracks how far the current market price deviates from Bitcoin’s “fair value,” based on what most holders paid for their coins (the realized price).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MVRV 極端偏差定價帶是一個鏈上模型，跟蹤當前市場價格與比特幣的 “公允價值” 之間的偏差，基於大多數持有者為其幣支付的價格（實現價格）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cointelegraph:4cd962aea094b-6c3344bd54f19072280c79ceace22693-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Historically, when BTC loses this +0.5σ band as support, it tends to revert toward the mean band (yellow), which currently sits around $96,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，當比特幣失去這個 +0.5σ帶作為支撐時，往往會迴歸到均值帶（黃色），目前大約在$96,500。</p>
</div><p>A similar “mean reversion” phase occurred during the December 2024–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin dropped from the +0.5σ level (~66,980) to the mean band (~$53,900) before rebounding sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月到 2025 年 4 月的修正期間，發生了類似的 “均值迴歸” 階段，當時比特幣從 +0.5σ水平（約 66,980）下跌到均值帶（約$53,900），然後迅速反彈。</p>
</div><p>This fractal suggests the current setup may simply be another cooling-off phase within a broader bull market, a reset to shake out excess leverage and overheated valuations before the next leg higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個分形表明當前的設置可能只是更廣泛牛市中的另一個降温階段，是為了清除過度槓桿和過熱估值的重置，為下一輪上漲做準備。</p>
</div><p>A drop below the mean reversion target, however, could risk triggering a bear market, with the next downside target at around $74,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，跌破均值迴歸目標可能會觸發熊市，下一下行目標約為$74,000。</p>
</div><p>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文不包含投資建議或推薦。每項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做出決策時應進行自己的研究。</p>
</div>

How low can Bitcoin price go if $110K BTC support fails?