Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman: Trade uncertainty makes interest rate cuts more urgent
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that trade tensions have increased the uncertainty of economic growth, forcing policymakers to consider cutting interest rates more quickly. He pointed out that the current downside risks are greater than they were a week ago, and policy should reflect this change. Milan supports a further reduction of the benchmark interest rate by 1.25 percentage points before the end of the year and believes that two more rate cuts this year are realistic. Although inflation is above target, the rising risk of unemployment may drive the decision to cut rates
Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that the recent trade tensions have increased the uncertainty surrounding economic growth prospects, making it more necessary for policymakers to cut interest rates as soon as possible.
Miran said at an event hosted by CNBC on Wednesday, "The downside risks are greater now than they were a week ago, and I think as policymakers, we have a responsibility to recognize that and let our policies reflect that change." He pointed out that uncertainty in trade policy has introduced a "new tail risk."
Miran stated, "I wouldn't say that I am more inclined to lower rates now than I was a week or a month ago; but with the shift in risk balance, I think we need to more urgently bring policy back to a more neutral level."
Miran had previously indicated his support for a further reduction of 1.25 percentage points in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by the end of this year. According to the latest median forecast from the 19 Federal Reserve policymakers, there will be two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025. Miran said on Wednesday that two more rate cuts this year "sound realistic."
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced market expectations for a second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October FOMC meeting later this month. Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, concerns about slowing job growth and rising unemployment risks may be the main factors driving this decision.
Miran expects substantial disinflation over the next year.
Miran has repeatedly called for a more accommodative monetary policy. He opposed the decision to only cut rates by 25 basis points last month, arguing for a 50 basis point cut.
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