eBay (EBAY) 扩展直播购物——平台的创新是否能证明其当前估值的合理性？

eBay (EBAY) is taking another step in livestream commerce by expanding its eBay Live platform to include new categories such as Art and Antiques and Health and Beauty. The move seeks to boost engagement as the collectibles segment continues to anchor sales growth.

See our latest analysis for eBay.

After a strong run in collectibles and fresh moves in livestream commerce, eBay’s share price momentum is firmly positive, up 47.76% for the year-to-date and notching a 43.93% total return over the past twelve months. While short-term bumps like shipping glitches have popped up, long-term shareholders have seen 154.13% total returns in just three years, which stands out in the broader retail tech space.

If expanding categories and resilient returns pique your interest, it could be a great time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

Yet with such substantial recent gains and optimism around platform innovation, is eBay’s valuation still compelling for new investors? Or has the market already priced in the company’s future prospects and profit potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued

According to the most closely watched narrative, eBay’s last close at $92.01 stands slightly above what many believe to be its true fair value. The story driving this number blends ongoing category growth and the expected evolution of eBay’s revenue base.

Expansion of mobile access and innovative app experiences, including new AI-powered listing tools, personalized communications, streamlined C2C managed shipping, and eBay Live social shopping, are driving higher seller and buyer engagement. This is likely to lift active user growth, listing volume, and ultimately top-line revenue. Investment in verticalization for high-value categories, along with scaling value-added services such as authentication, bulk selling, and payments partnerships like Klarna, is increasing take rates and average selling prices. These factors are supporting revenue expansion and margin improvement.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which numbers are pushing this stock above its fair value? Hint: it’s not just about revenues. Dig deeper, and you’ll find bold margin projections and assumptions about user base momentum that could make or break the outcome. Curious which financial levers matter most to this narrative? Click through and unpack the math powering this price target.

Result: Fair Value of $89 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing growth outside core categories or intensifying competition from newer, mobile-first platforms could challenge eBay's current earnings and sales trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this eBay narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Tells a Different Story

While analyst price targets nudge eBay’s value slightly below its current share price, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. According to this in-depth cash flow analysis, eBay actually trades well beneath its fair value, hinting at possible upside that standard earnings multiples might not capture. Which valuation lens do you find more convincing? What could close the gap next?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out eBay for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own eBay Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dissect the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to build your own case, your way. Do it your way

A great starting point for your eBay research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.