YANCOAL AUS's third-quarter raw coal production was 15.8 million tons, with a cash balance of AUD 1.8 billion

YANCOAL AUS (03668.HK) announced that for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, the raw coal production was 15.8 million tons based on a 100% benchmark; the saleable coal production was 12.3 million tons; the attributable saleable coal production was 9.3 million tons; the attributable coal sales volume was 10.7 million tons; and the average coal sales price was AUD 140 per ton. As of September 30, 2025, the cash balance was AUD 1.8 billion.

The company maintains its 2025 operational guidance, with attributable saleable coal production expected to be between 35 million and 39 million tons, currently above the midpoint of the range, and the full-year production may reach the upper end of the range. The cash operating cost is projected to be between AUD 89 and AUD 97 per ton, with AUD 93 per ton expected for the first half of 2025, and the full-year cost is anticipated to be at the midpoint of the range. Attributable capital expenditure is estimated to be between AUD 750 million and AUD 900 million, progressing smoothly and expected to remain within the guidance range.

The company stated that it continues to observe challenges in the international thermal coal and metallurgical coal markets. Although the main linked price indices have seen a slight rebound, there remains an oversupply of coal in various regions globally.

Regionally, Northeast Asia has experienced sustained high temperatures during the summer, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan significantly reducing inventories this quarter due to increased electricity demand; however, as of now, coal imports in Taiwan and South Korea have decreased by 9% and 4% year-on-year, respectively. In contrast, Japan has entered a restocking phase, with imports increasing by 5% year-on-year since the beginning of the year, which has provided some support to the GCNewc index.

China has also experienced a hot summer, with an increase in imports in August, but due to rising domestic coal production, imports have decreased by 20% year-on-year since the beginning of the year. Although there has been a recent temporary decline in domestic production, there are no signs of structural changes.

Compared to the weak demand in the international thermal coal market, the supply side remains relatively stable. Despite facing extreme weather impacts on port operations multiple times, Australia's export volume remains comparable to last year.

In the metallurgical coal market, the company has observed weak demand, while the supply side's response has been relatively slow. The total global seaborne trade volume of metallurgical coal has decreased by 11% year-on-year to date. In major markets, China's imports have decreased by 14% year-on-year due to a slowdown in the real estate market and infrastructure-related activities; Japan and South Korea have both seen a 10% decline in imports due to weak manufacturing and overall economic conditions. Taiwan's overall economic performance has been relatively resilient, with imports down by 4%. India is an exception, benefiting from construction activities supporting steel demand, with import volumes remaining roughly flat compared to 2024. Despite some traditional markets seeing reduced import volumes, the company remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, especially considering multiple forecasts indicating that coal demand will continue beyond 2040.

In Australia, some mines are under pressure regarding profitability, with exports decreasing by 9% year-on-year, indicating a certain degree of supply contraction. Canadian exports have decreased by 5%, primarily due to a fire incident at an export terminal that reduced coal handling capacity.

The company stated that overall, the international coal market environment remains challenging, and uncertainties regarding international tariff policies persist. For coal prices to rebound, there must be significant demand growth or substantial contraction on the supply side; The former is less likely, while the latter has begun to manifest, albeit slowly, with many mines that have entered custody still continuing production. Nevertheless, some industry insiders remain optimistic, believing that coal prices have bottomed out or even rebounded slightly