Wall Street predicts that the U.S. September CPI will be above 3%, and the government shutdown may affect the quality of subsequent data

Zhitong
2025.10.24 09:49

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the September CPI data on Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, a delay of 9 days from the originally scheduled release. Due to the previous government shutdown, the release of most official economic data was paused. Economists predict that the September CPI will rise by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in 16 months. Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted that this could be the last accurate inflation data before the government shutdown leads to a deterioration in data quality.

Predictions from various institutions are as follows:

FactSet survey: Year-on-year +3.1%

Bank of America: Overall CPI year-on-year approximately +3.0%, Core CPI year-on-year approximately +3.1%

Wells Fargo: Overall CPI year-on-year +3.1%, Core CPI year-on-year +3.1%

Morgan Stanley: Overall CPI year-on-year +3.10%, Core CPI year-on-year +3.12%

Goldman Sachs: Overall CPI month-on-month +0.3%, Core CPI month-on-month +0.3%

Citigroup: Core CPI month-on-month +0.28%

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