Enphase Energy: Navigating Near-Term Challenges with Strategic Growth Initiatives
Enphase Energy faces near-term challenges, reflected in Jeff Osborne's Hold rating due to below-market expectations for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, impacted by the expiration of the 25D tax credit and weaker European performance. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q2 2026, supported by prepaid leases, lower interest rates, and new product launches. Positive signs include better-than-expected Q3 results and strategic initiatives like the upcoming IQ9 product and cost reductions with new battery generations. TR | OpenAI also downgraded the stock to Hold with a $39.00 price target.
Jeff Osborne has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that reflect both challenges and potential opportunities for Enphase Energy. The company’s near-term outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 is below market expectations, primarily due to the expiration of the 25D tax credit and weaker performance in Europe. However, Enphase anticipates a recovery beginning in the second quarter of 2026, driven by factors such as prepaid leases, lower interest rates, and new product launches.
Despite these challenges, Enphase has shown some positive signs, including better-than-expected third-quarter results and strategic positioning to capitalize on market opportunities. The company is on track to introduce its IQ9 product for commercial use, which could open up a significant market in the U.S. Additionally, Enphase is making strides in reducing costs with its upcoming battery generations and shifting to non-Chinese battery cells. These factors contribute to a balanced view, resulting in a Hold rating as the company navigates its near-term hurdles while preparing for future growth.
In another report released on October 23, TR | OpenAI – 4o also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a $39.00 price target.
