Goldman Sachs raises next year's iron ore price forecast but maintains a bearish stance

According to Zhitong Finance APP, supported by macroeconomic factors, tightening inventories, and strong steel production in China, Goldman Sachs has raised its iron ore price forecast for 2026, but still expects prices to decline from current levels next year. Analysts, including Aurelia Waltham, stated in a report that Goldman Sachs expects the average price of iron ore in 2026 to be USD 93 per ton, which is USD 5 higher than the previous forecast.

The analysts mentioned in the report: "In recent months, the supply of the iron ore market has been tighter than we expected." They noted that strong steel production in China, stable port inventories over the past two quarters, along with the appreciation of the Renminbi, have supported iron ore prices.

Iron ore futures rose for the third consecutive day, increasing by 0.7% to USD 106.45 per ton as of the time of writing. With China taking measures to reduce industrial overcapacity, iron ore futures prices have rebounded about 15% from the low point in mid-June.

Despite strong steel exports, demand remains under pressure. Goldman Sachs stated that the outlook remains pessimistic, expecting iron ore prices to fall to USD 88 per ton by the last quarter of 2026, although this figure is higher than the previous forecast of USD 80.

On the supply side, Goldman Sachs noted that global iron ore shipments have increased by 15% year-on-year so far this quarter, which may exacerbate the seasonal increase in port inventories and lead to a continuous rise in inventories throughout 2026