U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Multiple AI Leaders' Earnings Reports Coming This Week

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of November 3rd (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.11%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.63%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.09%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.06%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.06%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.57%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.00%, priced at $60.98 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.02%, priced at $64.76 per barrel.

Market News

A new round of "Super Week" is coming! Several AI leaders' earnings reports are on the way, and the market faces a "data drought" test. After experiencing the busiest trading week of the year, investors are about to face another compact weekly schedule. This week, the theme of artificial intelligence (AI) will remain the market focus, with AI concept stocks such as Palantir (PLTR.US), AMD (AMD.US), Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), and Constellation Energy (CEG.US) set to release their quarterly earnings reports. In terms of economic data, the ongoing government shutdown may delay the monthly non-farm payroll data for the second consecutive month, making the ADP private sector employment data released on Wednesday the most important reference for the labor market this week. The manufacturing/services PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global will also be key highlights this week, while the preliminary consumer confidence index for November released by the University of Michigan on Friday will also attract attention.

Correction warning! Bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market is too strong, and even Wall Street's staunch bulls are starting to worry. There is currently an optimistic sentiment in the U.S. stock market, with investors seemingly convinced that the market will only go up. This has led one of Wall Street's staunch bulls to begin to worry that all this optimism is sending out dangerous reverse signals. Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research and a long-time bull on U.S. stocks, stated that after nearly six months of frenzied gains, there are too many bulls, and this rally has almost ignored all warnings. Yardeni predicts that due to market sentiment and technical indicators trending towards overbought, the S&P 500 index could drop as much as 5% from its peak by the end of December 64% of companies report earnings exceeding expectations, but the market remains indifferent! Goldman Sachs: Investors are turning to AI and macroeconomic uncertainties. So far, about two-thirds of the S&P 500 index constituents have reported earnings, with 64% of companies exceeding market expectations by at least one standard deviation. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin pointed out that despite the third-quarter earnings season showing the strongest positive performance in recent years, investors have reacted lukewarmly. Kostin noted that investors generally believe this quarter's performance has low reference significance for future earnings prospects and pointed out that uncertainties in trade policy, bank lending conditions, and other macro factors are the main influencing reasons.

Non-farm report may face another delay! Many signals still indicate that the U.S. economy remains resilient. The U.S. government shutdown has now exceeded one month, and the U.S. Department of Labor is likely unable to release the October employment report as originally planned on Friday. This will mark the second consecutive absence of the non-farm payroll report, making it difficult for investors and senior Federal Reserve officials to determine whether the economy is improving or deteriorating. However, there is enough scattered evidence showing that the U.S. economy is still operating well. In the absence of regular reference indicators, Wall Street has had to turn to credit card spending, corporate earnings data, and unemployment claims from various states to piece together the current economic situation. The situation reflected by these indicators is that even under multiple uncertainties (government shutdown, trade frictions, significant slowdown in hiring), the U.S. economy is still expanding.

U.S. Treasury Secretary sounds the alarm: High interest rates are pushing housing into recession, and the Federal Reserve must accelerate rate cuts. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that due to persistently high interest rates, certain sectors of the U.S. economy—especially housing—may have already entered a recession, and he reiterated calls for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts. Basset stated, "I believe the overall economic fundamentals are good, but certain sectors are indeed in recession. The Federal Reserve's policies have also caused many distribution issues." He pointed out that high mortgage rates are still hindering the real estate market, "Housing is essentially in a recession, with the most significant impact on low-end consumers who are highly indebted and have few assets." Basset described the overall economic environment as a "transition period" and criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for suggesting last week that a pause in rate cuts might occur in December.

OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 next year, Morgan Stanley raises short-term oil price expectations. OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year after balancing the goal of expanding market share with increasingly evident signals of oversupply, but will still slightly increase production next month. The organization decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, maintaining the increase planned for October and November, and will then pause production increases from January to March next year. The first quarter is typically a low season for oil demand, and representatives at the meeting indicated that the decision to pause production increases starting in January reflects expectations of seasonal demand slowing. Morgan Stanley has raised its short-term oil price expectations. The bank stated on Monday that it has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 per barrel, up from the previous $57.50.

Individual Stock News

Alphabet (GOOGL.US) returns to the European bond market, plans to issue €3 billion in bonds to support AI and cloud infrastructure investments. Alphabet plans to return to the European bond market for the second time this year, issuing multiple tranches of euro-denominated benchmark bonds to fund its record spending in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure According to media reports citing informed sources, Alphabet is planning to issue six euro-denominated benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 39 years, with a total issuance scale expected to be at least €3 billion (approximately $3.5 billion). Alphabet is investing record amounts of capital to drive the development of artificial intelligence and integrate the capabilities of its large language model Gemini into popular products, including search.

Cryptocurrency mining company Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) Q3 earnings per share exceed expectations, reaching a $5.5 billion agreement with Amazon (AMZN.US) AWS. The financial report shows that Cipher Mining's revenue for the third quarter was $71.707 million, below the market expectation of $78.602 million; earnings per share were $0.10, better than the market expectation of a loss of $0.02 per share. In addition, the company announced a 15-year leasing agreement valued at approximately $5.5 billion with Amazon AWS, which will provide 300 megawatts of ready-to-use space and power for AI workloads. As of the time of writing, Cipher Mining's stock rose nearly 18% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Pre-market surge! IREN (IREN.US) signs a $9.7 billion AI cloud agreement with Microsoft. Microsoft (MSFT.US) has signed an agreement worth approximately $9.7 billion with Australian company IREN Ltd to procure artificial intelligence (AI) cloud computing power, becoming the largest customer of this Australian company. According to a statement released by IREN on Monday, this five-year agreement will provide Microsoft with accelerator systems based on NVIDIA (NVDA.US) GB300 architecture located in Texas for processing AI workloads. The agreement also includes a 20% prepayment. Sydney-based IREN also announced that it has agreed to purchase the necessary GPUs and related equipment from Dell Technologies (DELL.US) for $5.8 billion. As of the time of writing, IREN's stock rose over 21% in pre-market trading on Monday.

CompoSecure (CMPO.US) rises in pre-market trading, reportedly planning to spend $5 billion to acquire injection molding equipment supplier Husky Technologies. Fintech company CompoSecure, backed by former Honeywell CEO Kurt, plans to acquire injection molding equipment supplier Husky Technologies from Platinum Equity for approximately $5 billion (including debt). Reports indicate that part of the funding for this transaction will come from about $2 billion in PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) investment, expected to sell CompoSecure common stock at a price of $18.50 per share. As of the time of writing, CompoSecure's stock rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Monday.

$48.7 billion deal triggers stock price shock! "Acquirer" Kimberly-Clark (KMB.US) plummets, Kenvue (KVUE) surges. Kimberly-Clark announced that it has reached a deal to acquire all outstanding shares of Kenvue, the manufacturer of Tylenol, in cash and stock. According to the agreement unanimously approved by both boards, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and 0.14625 shares of Kimberly-Clark stock as consideration, valuing the transaction at $21.01 per share As of the time of publication, before the market opened on Monday, Kimberly-Clark's stock price fell more than 15%, while Kenvue rose more than 20%.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 22:45 US October SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final

Beijing time 23:00 US October ISM Manufacturing PMI

Beijing time the next day 01:00 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks

Beijing time the next day 03:00 Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Brookings Institution on "Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook"

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: Palantir (PLTR.US)

Tuesday pre-market: BP (BP.US), Philips (PHG.US), Spotify (SPOT.US), Uber (UBER.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.US)