Nintendo's $450 Console Is Flying Off Shelves--And the Next Forecast Hike Might Be Coming Soon
Nintendo Co. has raised its sales and profit outlook, projecting 19 million Switch 2 units sold by March, up from 15 million. The company increased its full-year operating income guidance by 16% to $2.4 billion and raised its dividend payout ratio to 60%. The Switch 2's strong debut, with 10.36 million units sold by September, has exceeded expectations. Despite challenges, Nintendo is boosting advertising spending by 80% to maintain visibility. Production plans suggest up to 25 million units by March, indicating continued investor optimism into 2025.
Nintendo Co. (NTDOY) lifted its sales and profit outlook as the Switch 2 smashed early expectations, signaling that the console's momentum could extend deep into the holiday season. The Kyoto-based gaming giant now projects 19 million units sold by Marchup from its earlier 15 million forecastwhile raising full-year operating income guidance by 16% to 370 billion ($2.4 billion). The company also increased its dividend payout ratio to 60%, a move that underscores growing confidence in the franchise's ability to sustain profitability as it enters the most competitive retail stretch of the year.
The Switch 2's debut has been far stronger than anticipated. By the end of September, Nintendo sold 10.36 million units, driving quarterly operating profit to 88.25 billion on revenue of 527.2 billionboth ahead of market consensus. Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda described the performance as a major surprise, noting that second-half sales, which include the Christmas shopping season, almost never trail the first half. That pattern, he said, leaves room for another potential guidance revision if holiday momentum holds.
Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa acknowledged that sustaining such demand may not be straightforward, given the console's $450 price tag and the backdrop of global trade friction under the Donald Trump administration's tariff environment. Still, the company has doubled down on visibilityboosting advertising spending by 80% last quarter to 64.6 billionto ensure the Switch 2 remains front and center with consumers. Sources familiar with production plans said Nintendo has asked assembly partners to prepare up to 25 million units by March, suggesting that the record-setting console launch could continue to anchor investor optimism well into 2025.
