Citi sets a target price of $29.4 for XPeng, expecting new business to drive stock price benefits

Citi's research report pointed out that XPeng Motors (09868.HK)(XPEV.US) announced at the "2025 XPeng Technology Day" yesterday that it will launch new businesses and products by entering the fields of Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and flying cars, including the expected launch of L4 Robotaxi in 2026, equipped with 4 Turing chips; it will also collaborate with Alibaba's ride-hailing platform "Amap" to provide Robotaxi service operations. Citi believes this is exciting news; production and delivery of the IRON humanoid robots will begin at the end of 2026; and deliveries of flying car units "Land Aircraft Carrier" will start in 2026.

Citi stated that although it is currently in the early stages of quantifying XPeng's new business profitability, it believes this will bring good market sentiment to the stock and help its valuation gradually rise from the past valuation levels of new energy vehicles to a higher premium level linked to AI, technology, and Robotaxi.

Citi recognizes XPeng's early entry into the new Robotaxi business, predicting that the scale of China's Robotaxi fleet will grow from 3,800 vehicles in 2025 to 538,000 vehicles in 2030, and 2.3 million vehicles by 2035; the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030 is expected to be 169%, and the CAGR from 2030 to 2035 is expected to be 34%. The total addressable market for China's Robotaxi is projected to surge at a CAGR of 229% (2025 to 2030) to reach $15 billion by 2030, and to reach $68 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 35% (2030 to 2035).

Citi derived a target price of $29.4 by applying a 2.5 times sales multiple for 2025; maintaining a "Buy" rating