Next week's key schedule: Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com earnings reports, China's October economic data

November 10 - November 16 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

Key Focus for This Week: China-US economic data, Chinese tech giants and major US corporate earnings reports, AMD Analyst Day, Huawei Operating System Conference.

In addition, this week, Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders may be released, Federal Reserve officials and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give speeches, the 8th China International Import Expo will conclude, and the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting will be held.

Economic Indicators

• China's October Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods, Real Estate Development Investment, Housing Prices in 70 Cities, Financial Data

On November 14, a series of major economic data including China's October retail sales, industrial added value above designated size, and real estate development investment will be released. On the same day, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation. Next week, financial data such as social financing will also be announced.

CICC expects that economic activity in October will improve in the short term due to stable growth policies, with production, demand, and prices in domestic demand-related sectors likely to improve. On the production side, the manufacturing of raw materials has somewhat recovered, driving an increase in industrial production sentiment. On the demand side, the old-for-new policy for consumer goods is boosting consumption in automobiles, home appliances, and home renovation, supporting retail sales growth, while infrastructure investment may continue to maintain a high growth rate, and the decline in the area of commercial housing transactions has also significantly narrowed. Overall, against the backdrop of policies aimed at stabilizing fourth-quarter growth, economic activity is showing signs of short-term stabilization.

CITIC Securities expects that the economic improvement trend in October is likely to continue. On the production side, the manufacturing PMI production index rebounded significantly in October, and high-frequency data shows that the fundamentals of industrial production are recovering, with industrial added value growth expected to continue to rise. On the demand side, it is expected that the growth rate of broad infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will remain high, the decline in real estate investment growth may slightly narrow, and the overall fixed asset investment growth rate may slightly increase; consumption will benefit from the continued effects of the old-for-new policy, with retail sales growth expected to rebound to around 4.0%. In terms of financial data, there is a certain lag in policy transmission to financial data, and the growth rate of social financing in October may slightly decline.

• US October CPI, PPI

In a market filled with uncertainties due to the government shutdown, whether the US October CPI and PPI data, originally scheduled for release next week, can be published on time has become a major suspense.

The market expects the October CPI to grow by 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate possibly slowing to 2.9%. If market expectations materialize, it would indicate that inflationary pressures have not broadly accelerated, thus lighting a "green light" for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.

Financial Events

• US Government Shutdown Sets Record, Interest Rate Cut Outlook Uncertain

The US government shutdown continues. This shutdown, which has lasted more than 35 days and set a record for the longest in history, is becoming the biggest uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path. This political deadlock not only leads to the indefinite postponement of the release of a large number of key economic data but also puts the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making, in a "fog" regarding whether to continue cutting interest rates in December Currently, Wall Street is closely watching for signals of an end to the shutdown. Goldman Sachs' latest forecast suggests that the deadlock is "most likely to end around the second week of November"; Citigroup shares a similar view, expressing confidence that the deadlock will be resolved "within two weeks." The core logic behind this is that the negative impacts of the shutdown are rapidly expanding: air traffic controllers missing their payday have threatened the stability of the aviation system, and disruptions in the food assistance program (SNAP) affecting 42 million people are putting pressure on both parties to seek compromise.

The duration of the shutdown will directly determine the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. Morgan Stanley analyzed three scenarios: if the shutdown ends quickly, the Fed will have enough data, making a rate cut in December highly likely; if it drags on until mid-November, the data will become limited, but a rate cut is still possible; if the deadlock continues until after Thanksgiving in late November, the Fed will face a "data vacuum," significantly increasing the likelihood of holding steady in December.

• AMD Analyst Day

On November 11, AMD will hold its annual Analyst Day event in New York, which is seen by the market as the next important catalyst for the company's stock price. Bank of America reports that AMD may choose to concentrate on releasing significant positive news at this event rather than disclosing it in the current earnings report. The bank recently raised AMD's target price to $300 and emphasized that AMD holds less than 30% market share in related markets worth hundreds of billions of dollars, indicating substantial growth potential.

With the MI450 series gaining support from giants like Oracle and Meta, and the data center GPU business expected to achieve $14 billion in revenue by 2026, this Analyst Day is expected to reveal more technical roadmaps and long-term plans, providing key guidance for investors.

Investors should also pay attention to potential risks at this event. Institutions like JPMorgan have warned that AMD is facing fierce competition from larger rivals such as NVIDIA and Broadcom, and the transition to rack-level systems may put pressure on gross margins in the short term.

• Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Hits, Liquidity "Worsens"

Wall Street Journal wrote that the U.S. Treasury will auction $125 billion in government bonds next week, along with about $40 billion in corporate bonds, concentrated in a shortened trading week during the holiday, posing a severe test to market liquidity. To cope with the government shutdown, the Treasury has stockpiled over $700 billion in cash, leading bank reserves to drop to their lowest level since 2021, making the current liquidity environment very fragile.

Specific issuance arrangements:

• On Monday, $58 billion in 3-year Treasury bonds will be auctioned,
• On Wednesday, $42 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds will be auctioned,
• On Thursday, $25 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds will be auctioned.

• Buffett's Thanksgiving Letter to Shareholders May Be Released

Buffett will continue to serve as CEO for two more months and will share his thoughts with the investment community. According to media reports citing Buffett's assistant, a Thanksgiving letter addressed to his three children and shareholders will be released on November 10

• G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting Held

The G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting will be held in Canada from November 11 to 12.

• Federal Reserve Officials and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen to Speak Intensively

Federal Reserve officials and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will speak intensively next week, including 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will deliver a speech on November 12.

• Huawei to Hold Operating System Conference & openEuler Summit 2025 on November 14-15

According to Huawei Computing news, Xiong Wei, chairman of the openEuler committee of the OpenAtom Foundation, revealed in the invitation for the Operating System Conference & openEuler Summit 2025 that the conference will be held at the Zhongguancun International Innovation Center in Beijing on November 14-15, 2025, and will release important technical versions of openEuler in the AI field.

• The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference to be Held in Brazil from November 10-21

The 30th United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) is a key milestone marking the 10th anniversary of the implementation of the Paris Agreement, carrying a dual historical mission. On one hand, as a key meeting after the first global climate stocktake, it will assess the collective progress of countries in emission reduction actions and climate adaptation; on the other hand, it will test whether the world can translate the 1.5°C temperature control target from scientific consensus into pragmatic action. The outcomes of the Belém meeting will largely determine whether global climate governance can enter a new phase of more ambitious, fairer, and more sustainable execution.

• The 8th China International Import Expo Concludes

The 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10.

2025 6G Development Conference to be Held on November 13-14 in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone

Bank of Canada Releases Minutes from October Monetary Policy Meeting

OPEC Releases Monthly Oil Market Report

Financial Reports

• Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Bilibili, CoreWeave, Circle, and Other Financial Reports Coming Soon

Next week, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, Bilibili, Li Auto, SMIC, and Lenovo Holdings will release their financial reports for the U.S. or Hong Kong stock markets.

At the same time, AI computing power newcomer CoreWeave, stablecoin leader Circle, Cisco, Occidental Petroleum, Disney, Tyson Foods, and other companies will also release their financial reports.

Among them, the market expects Tencent's third-quarter revenue to increase by about 14% year-on-year, driven by both gaming and advertising businesses; Alibaba needs to demonstrate the resilience of its e-commerce business and the growth potential of AI and cloud computing. The performance of these two giants will provide key directional guidance for the recent trends of Chinese technology stocks In addition, Meituan, JD.com, and other e-commerce peers continue to face the challenge of internal price competition within the industry.

On the U.S. side, the market expects CoreWeave's revenue to continue its explosive growth, but remains cautious about its high valuation, high leverage, and customer concentration risk with Microsoft