Goldman Sachs slightly lowered the target price for WYNN MACAU to HKD 7.4, expecting limited performance in the fourth quarter

Goldman Sachs research report indicates that WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) had a property EBITDA of USD 308 million in the third quarter, benefiting from a VIP room win rate rising to 4.26%, compared to 2.97% in the previous quarter. If the VIP room win rate is adjusted to the theoretical value of 3.4%, the property EBITDA would be USD 285 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% and a year-on-year growth of 9%, in line with market expectations. During the period, the market share of gaming revenue increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 13.1%.

The management of WYNN MACAU remains optimistic about the prospects of the Macau gaming industry and the company's business, emphasizing that the high-end market continues to perform strongly, supporting a double-digit year-on-year growth in gaming volume for its properties in October. However, due to the low actual win rate in the mass market, the company's total gaming revenue growth in October may lag behind the industry level; the bank estimates the company's market share in October to be around 12%.

The bank assumes a market share of 12.6%, and with more events being held at the end of the year generating additional costs, it expects WYNN MACAU's property EBITDA for the fourth quarter to be USD 280 million, with an annual property EBITDA of USD 1.1 billion. The bank has adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 4% to up by 1%, lowering the target price for WYNN MACAU from HKD 7.5 to HKD 7.4, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, and anticipates that the decline in market share in October and higher costs in the fourth quarter will limit the upside potential for EBITDA and stock price