"Forecast" Brokers expect Xiaomi's adjusted net profit in the third quarter to rise 61% year-on-year, focusing on smartphone costs and automotive business profitability
Xiaomi Corporation-W (01810.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year next Tuesday (18th). The performance may be affected by the slowdown in smartphone and AIoT sales due to a decline in shipments in China and India. According to IDC data, Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments in the third quarter reached 45.3 million units, a quarterly increase of 2%, with shipments in the Chinese market at 10 million units. The market expects Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries in the third quarter to exceed 100,000 units, which will contribute to its performance. A comprehensive forecast from 14 brokerages predicts that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter of 2025, measured by non-International Financial Reporting Standards, will range from RMB 9.51 billion to RMB 10.557 billion, up 52.1% to 68.9% from RMB 6.252 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 10.051 billion, an annual increase of 60.8%.
According to a comprehensive forecast from 8 brokerages, Xiaomi's profit for the third quarter of this year is expected to range from RMB 8.939 billion to RMB 10.941 billion, up 67.4% to 104.9% from RMB 5.34 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 10.183 billion, an annual increase of 90.7%. A comprehensive forecast from 15 brokerages predicts that Xiaomi's revenue for the third quarter of this year will range from RMB 108.4 billion to RMB 115.889 billion, up 17.2% to 25.3% from RMB 92.507 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 112.477 billion, an annual increase of 21.6%.
Xiaomi's smartphones are mainly concentrated in emerging markets, and the lower average selling price may drag down quarterly revenue growth. Additionally, with rising component costs such as DRAM and NAND Flash, investors will focus on Xiaomi management's guidance on smartphone product costs and gross margins, shipment guidance for the next few quarters, profitability of the automotive business, capacity expansion, and plans for gross margin delivery.
【Smartphone Costs Under Pressure, Automotive Business Driving Growth】
Citi published a report stating that it expects Xiaomi's total revenue for the third quarter of this year to be RMB 112.866 billion, an annual increase of 22% (a quarterly decrease of 2.7%). It estimates that revenue from the smartphone business will be RMB 46.268 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% (a quarterly increase of 1.6%), revenue from IoT and lifestyle consumer products will be RMB 27.407 billion, an annual increase of 5% (a quarterly decrease of 29%), revenue from internet services will be RMB 9.191 billion, an annual increase of 8.6% (a quarterly increase of 1%), and revenue from innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles is estimated to be RMB 29.001 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2 times (a quarterly growth of over 36%).
Citi expects Xiaomi's gross profit for the third quarter of this year to be RMB 25.668 billion, an annual increase of 36% (a quarterly decrease of 1.7%), estimating that the gross profit from the smartphone business will be RMB 5.089 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% (a quarterly decrease of 2.5%), with the gross margin of the smartphone business dropping to 11% (down from 11.5% last quarter). It estimates that the gross profit from IoT and lifestyle consumer products will be RMB 6.441 billion, an annual increase of 18.9% (a quarterly decrease of 26%) with a related gross margin of 23.5%. It expects the gross profit from internet services to be RMB 6.893 billion, an annual increase of 5.2% (with a related gross margin of 75%), and the gross profit from innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles to be RMB 7.395 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.45 times (a quarterly increase of 32%) with a related gross margin of 25.5% Compared to the previous quarter (26.4%), it is estimated that the R&D expenditure in the third quarter will be CNY 7.618 billion, an increase of 28% year-on-year. The bank expects Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter, measured by non-International Financial Reporting Standards, to be CNY 10.005 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The operating gross margin is expected to be 9% (compared to 7% in the third quarter of 2024 and 12% in the second quarter of 2025), and the net profit margin is expected to be 8%.
The bank estimates that Xiaomi's revenue from innovative businesses such as electric vehicles in the third quarter will be CNY 29.001 billion, with a delivery volume of approximately 109,000 vehicles and an average selling price of about CNY 260,000. In September, the delivery volume of electric vehicles increased to over 40,000 units. The bank believes that Xiaomi will exceed its annual target, delivering 386,000 vehicles by the end of the year at a pace of 40,000 vehicles per month, and achieving the bank's estimated annual delivery volume of 400,000 vehicles at a pace of 45,000 vehicles per month. Citi believes that Xiaomi's second factory is ready, but the issuance of production licenses has been delayed due to the "anti-involution" policy. Xiaomi may be discussing long-term production plans with the mainland government, and the timing of license issuance is still unclear, possibly extending to next year. Currently, Xiaomi has 400,000 locked orders, with a waiting time of 40 to 50 weeks. The gross margin is expected to remain at a high level of 25.5%, and the operating profit margin is expected to achieve breakeven for the first time.
Citi released a report predicting that Xiaomi's total revenue for the third quarter will be CNY 112 billion, with an adjusted net profit of CNY 10.2 billion (a year-on-year increase of 64% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%). The quarterly performance may be slightly below the bank's expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected gross margins for smartphones and IoT revenue, while the internet and electric vehicle businesses are generally in line with expectations. The bank pointed out that the decline in gross margin for Xiaomi's smartphone business is affected by an unfavorable regional mix and rising memory prices, while IoT revenue has decreased due to the fading effect of subsidies in China.
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 14 brokerages, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for the third quarter of 2025, measured by non-International Financial Reporting Standards, is expected to be between CNY 9.51 billion and CNY 10.557 billion, an increase of 52.1% to 68.9% compared to CNY 6.252 billion in the same period last year, with a median of CNY 10.051 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%.
Brokerage│Adjusted net profit forecast for the third quarter of 2025 (CNY)│Year-on-year change
CICC│CNY 10.557 billion│+68.9%
BOCI│CNY 10.478 billion│+67.6%
UBS│CNY 10.403 billion│+66.4%
Citi│CNY 10.239 billion│+63.8%
Huatai Securities│CNY 10.169 billion│+62.7%
BofA Securities│CNY 10.069 billion│+61.1%
Daiwa│CNY 10.065 billion│+61% Cathay Securities│CNY 10.037 billion│+60.5%
Goldman Sachs│CNY 10.037 billion│+60.5%
CMB International│CNY 10.014 billion│+60.2%
Citi│CNY 10.005 billion│+60%
China Jianyin Investment│CNY 9.714 billion│+55.4%
Jefferies│CNY 9.698 billion│+55.1%
Haitong International│CNY 9.51 billion│+52.1%
Based on Xiaomi's non-GAAP net profit of CNY 6.252 billion for the third quarter of 2024
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According to the forecasts of 8 brokerages, Xiaomi's profit for the third quarter this year is expected to be between CNY 8.939 billion and CNY 10.941 billion, compared to CNY 5.34 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.4% to 104.9%, with a median of CNY 10.183 billion, up 90.7% year-on-year.
Brokerage│Q3 2025 Net Profit Forecast (CNY)│Year-on-Year Change
Goldman Sachs│CNY 10.941 billion│+104.9%
Haitong International│CNY 10.884 billion│+103.8%
Jefferies│CNY 10.661 billion│+99.6%
Cathay Securities│CNY 10.266 billion│+92.2%
HSBC Global Research│CNY 10 billion│+89.1%
CICC│CNY 9.888 billion│+85.2%
BOCI│CNY 9.765 billion│+82.9%
BofA Securities│CNY 8.939 billion│+67.4%
Based on Xiaomi's profit of CNY 5.34 billion for the third quarter of 2024
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According to the forecasts of 15 brokerages, Xiaomi's revenue for the third quarter this year is expected to be between CNY 108.4 billion and CNY 115.889 billion, compared to revenue of CNY 92.507 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% to 25.3%, with a median of CNY 112.477 billion, up 21.6% year-on-year.
Brokerage│Q3 2025 Revenue Forecast (CNY)│Year-on-Year Change
UBS│CNY 115.889 billion│+25.3%
Cathay Securities│CNY 114.39 billion│+23.7%
Huatai Securities│CNY 113.397 billion│+23%
BOCI│CNY 113.776 billion│+23%
Citi│CNY 112.866 billion│+22%
China Jianyin Investment│CNY 112.663 billion│+21.8%
CMB International│CNY 112.623 billion│+21.7%
BofA Securities│CNY 112.477 billion│+21.6% CICC | CNY 112.357 billion | +21.5%
Citigroup | CNY 112.274 billion | +21.4%
Daiwa | CNY 111.593 billion | +20.6%
Jefferies | CNY 111.058 billion | +20.1%
Goldman Sachs | CNY 110.821 billion | +19.8%
Haitong International | CNY 109.828 billion | +18.7%
HSBC Global Research | CNY 108.4 billion | +17.2%
Based on Xiaomi's revenue of CNY 92.507 billion for the third quarter of 2024
