Macquarie lowers PDD target price to $162, rating "Outperform"

Macquarie's research report pointed out that Pinduoduo (PDD.US) achieved performance in line with expectations in the third quarter of this year, but noted that its cross-border e-commerce platform Temu saw accelerated revenue growth, while domestic core advertising revenue growth slowed due to the implementation of merchant support policies. The firm expects that as peers accelerate investment in fast commerce, domestic sales and marketing expenses will recover, although some of this will be offset by the base effect brought about by the "trade-in" subsidies.

The firm stated that although it believes Pinduoduo will remain the fastest-growing e-commerce platform (in terms of gross merchandise volume), increased investment by peers in the fast commerce sector will intensify domestic competition, leading to an expected increase in sales and marketing expenses. It anticipates that online marketing services (OMS) revenue will grow by 12% and 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year and in 2026, respectively.

Macquarie has adjusted its net profit forecasts for Pinduoduo for the next two years to growth of 10% and a decline of 2%, respectively, to reflect the recent performance of various business segments on profit outlook; based on a unchanged target price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for 2026, it has lowered the target price by 2%, from $165 to $162; rating "Outperform"