CSC: Copper prices are expected to reach new highs

華爾街見聞
2025.12.01 00:25
中信建投研報表示，銅價有望再創新高。中國銅原料聯合談判小組（CSPT）於近日再次研究討論，成員企業達成以下共識並嚴格遵守：2026 年度降低礦銅產能負荷 10% 以上，改善銅精礦供需基本面；維護 Benchmark 體系，加強與礦山直接合作，堅決抵制貿易商不合理的指數計價模式等。冶煉產能與銅礦不匹配是造成 TC（粗煉費）偏離合理水平的主因，冶煉壓減產能的目的是讓 TC 回升到合理水平，不會影響銅礦向精煉銅的轉變，但是壓產集中發生會對短期供應構成衝擊。疊加美聯儲 12 月降息的概率已達 86%，有可能幫助銅價復刻 2024 年 3 月 13 日的突破上升行情。
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