Zheshang Securities' Li Chao: The strongest asset in 2026 is equity, and the certainty of A-shares is concentrated in technology growth and dividends

1. Why is the GDP forecast for 2026 around 4.8%?

Li Chao stated that the judgment of the growth rate for 2026 must be understood within a longer cyclical framework. According to the goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035, the average growth rate required over the next decade is about 4.17% per year. Based on this, the central tendency during the 14th Five-Year Plan is approximately 4.5%, while the 15th Five-Year Plan is about 4%.

2026 is the starting year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is unlikely that it will directly fall to 4.5% in the first year. It is more likely to approach the target range of around 5%, or be expressed as 4.5%-5%. In internal assessments, there will be a stronger inclination towards "striving for 5%", but there will not be excessive obsession with "whether it reaches 5%".

From an accounting perspective, GDP is primarily calculated using the production method, so it needs to be deduced from the industrial structure:

Industry remains a key variable. The forecast for industrial added value in 2026 provided by Dr. Li Chao's team at Zheshang Securities is approximately 5.1%, and this is calculated within the framework of "anti-involution". There will be some contradiction between stable industrial growth and anti-involution, so the first quarter must achieve a "good start", with GDP needing to exceed 5% to lay a foundation for structural transformation throughout the year.

Consumption and exports are forming a new central tendency. The growth rate of retail sales is expected to be around 4%, and exports are expected to be around 4% as well. The "trade-in" program contributes significantly but needs to expand its categories; global ODI-driven supporting exports remain resilient.

Investment pressure is relatively high. Manufacturing investment is expected to be around 6.5%, narrow-sense infrastructure about 3%, and broad-sense infrastructure about 6.5%. Real estate investment needs to stabilize at around –10%, and cannot continue to decline.

Overall deductions suggest that fixed asset investment is about 2.5%, and overall demand can support a growth level close to 5%.

2. What variables might bring "pleasant surprises" in 2026?

Li Chao summarized the real framework of the market as a four-layer logic of "China-U.S. competition—social stability—structural transformation—economic growth". The real expectation difference often comes from the first three layers, rather than traditional economic cycles.

In terms of China-U.S. relations, trade is already at a high level, and the next phase is more likely to extend into the financial or technology sectors. With the support of liquidity from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the central bank, indices are likely to present a steady upward slow bull pattern.

Social stability requires a shift in stimulus methods from "real estate + infrastructure" to "improving the consumption system + investing in people". This type of policy rhythm is slower but provides a more stable underpinning.

The real "surprise" comes from structural transformation. This means shifting from real estate to high-end manufacturing and future industries. The "17 major tracks" proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology remain a focus, among which "low-altitude economy" and "deep-sea economy" have emerged new opportunities due to changes in track connotations Future industries such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, new energy storage, brain-computer interfaces, and biological manufacturing are expected to become the areas with the greatest expected difference under the combination of declining interest rates and rising risk appetite.

Overall, technology growth and high-end manufacturing are the most resilient; dividends take on defensive roles during disturbances.

3. Will fiscal and monetary policies continue to loosen in 2026?

"Extraordinary counter-cyclical" is a rarely used term, and this round is more about phase-specific operations in response to external shocks. It is unlikely to maintain its intensity in the future, and will slowly retreat, but will not make a sharp turn.

The central bank has emphasized "cross-cycle adjustment" in its third-quarter monetary policy report, with the core meaning being to shift policy space to the future. Fiscal and monetary policies still need to play the stabilizing role for high-quality development, but will no longer rely on large-scale real estate and infrastructure stimulus; instead, resources will be concentrated on technology manufacturing and new productive forces.

In other words: slower pace and stronger structure will be the main tone for 2026.

4. How to understand the growth logic of the U.S. economy in 2026?

Li Chao believes that the U.S. economy is not in recession, yet the introduction of the "Big and Beautiful Act" means that the fiscal side needs to coordinate with the Federal Reserve's monetary side. This explains why the U.S. has already cut interest rates and may expand its balance sheet again in the future; otherwise, it will face a "money shortage."

Inflation risk is the most concerning issue for the market, but this round of U.S. stimulus is not the traditional "stimulating consumption and real estate," but focuses on AI, high technology, and manufacturing return. This structure is more conducive to suppressing inflation. In addition, the U.S. still has strong control over the global energy system, which helps stabilize oil prices.

In summary, there is no recession risk in the U.S. in 2026; total demand remains resilient, and investment in the technology chain has not yet ended.

5. Is AI a long-cycle technological revolution? How does the bubble evolve?

Whether AI can take off depends on two macro conditions: declining interest rates + rising risk appetite. Both are indispensable.

Regarding the bubble, technological revolutions are inherently accompanied by phase-specific bubbles. The bursting of the internet bubble was due to the dual impact of "technology realization + Federal Reserve interest rate hikes," but AI is still far from realization, and the U.S. is not in a rate hike cycle.

Li Chao believes that there is no possibility of a bubble burst in 2026. What really needs to be vigilant about is whether there will be technological bottlenecks in the coming years. If breakthroughs slow down while market consensus is extremely uniform, then the bubble may pose a risk.

In his view, rather than studying "how interest rate hikes burst bubbles," it is better to focus on the progress speed of technology itself, as the latter is the key uncertainty.

6. What new variables in the Eurozone are worth paying attention to?

The most important change in the Eurozone is re-militarization. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, core countries have broken the Maastricht Treaty, raising the deficit ratio to above 3% to promote military investment. From a fundamental perspective, this is a supporting variable, but its multiplier effect is not as strong as that of real estate The risk lies in debt diffusion. In the past, the risks of marginal countries were significant, but now the deficits of France and Germany are also expanding, leading to an overall increase in credit risk. Some fiscal stimulus even supports the U.S. manufacturing sector, further increasing the pressure.

The yield on French government bonds has risen to over 4%, indicating insufficient bond buying. In this situation, the European Central Bank will inevitably have to use "quasi-expansion" to provide a safety net. The Eurozone will also move towards a "dual expansion combination" of fiscal expansion and monetary easing.

7. How to allocate major asset classes in 2026?

Li Chao is most optimistic about equity assets, with A-shares ranking first.

In terms of A-shares, the decline in interest rates and liquidity easing support the "technology + dividends" dual main line. Technology reflects resilience, while dividends reflect stability, with both switching at different times.

Hong Kong stocks are influenced by the "return of Chinese capital," and the valuation center is expected to rise. U.S. stocks still have opportunities under the dual expansion combination of fiscal and monetary policies, and Europe and Japan are also not lagging.

In the commodity sector, varieties such as copper, rare earths, and tungsten under the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, as well as gold and silver, are worth noting. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, about 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings in 2026, making it the strongest hedging asset.

The bond market will present a "volatile + slightly downward" structural trend.

The overall order can be summarized as: Equities → Commodities → Bonds.

8. How can ordinary investors grasp the main line amid the noise?

Li Chao suggests that if the macro foundation is weak, one can use a very stable long-term strategy: "50% technology stocks + 50% gold." Technology corresponds to future revolutions, while gold hedges against debt and geopolitical risks, and this combination can cover the vast majority of macro uncertainties.

If one can understand the macro framework, they can frequently track risk preferences and rotate between technology and dividends. Buy technology when risk preference rises, and switch to dividends when it falls; this strategy has been effective over the past two years.

The key is not to chase every piece of news, but to grasp one variable: risk preference itself. Understanding it allows one to comprehend the rotation map of A-shares.

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