The United States cannot bear higher interest rates
The U.S. Treasury cannot bear the rising financing costs, with interest expenditures accounting for about 14% of federal spending. While it seems unlikely for yields to rise to 6%, a steepening of the yield curve will be inevitable if economic growth and inflation accelerate. Unless the current economic slowdown persists into next year, the new Federal Reserve Chair may set the terminal rate earlier in May next year
The U.S. Treasury cannot bear the rising cost of financing: interest payments now account for about 14% of federal spending. In the early 1990s, this ratio was higher, but at that time, the five-year Treasury yield was 6.1%, while it is now only 3.7%. Although it seems unlikely that yields will rise to 6%, if economic growth and inflation accelerate again, and the market expects interest rate hikes even under the guidance of the Federal Reserve, then a steepening of the yield curve will be inevitable.
Unless the current economic slowdown continues into next year, this process could begin as early as May once the new Federal Reserve Chair sets the terminal rate in advance.
