This could be the most expensive and highly anticipated IPO of next year: OpenAI and Anthropic

The IPO race between artificial intelligence giants OpenAI and Anthropic is becoming the focus of capital markets, with both companies exploring the possibility of going public.

The latest development in this race is that, according to a recent report by the Financial Times, Anthropic, the developer of the AI large model Claude, has taken concrete preliminary actions by hiring Wilson Sonsini law firm to prepare for a listing plan that could become one of the largest IPOs in history.

This move is interpreted by the market as a potential acceleration signal for the public debut of AI giants, with the IPO possibly occurring as early as next year. Whether OpenAI or Anthropic goes public first will be a key test of the public market's willingness to pay for loss-making but rapidly growing AI startups, setting the tone for the IPO decisions of other highly valued private tech companies.

Reports indicate that adding weight to this high-stakes competition is that Anthropic is currently negotiating a new round of private financing, with a valuation potentially exceeding an astonishing $300 billion. This figure highlights the enormous thirst for capital in the field and suggests the "most expensive" potential for its IPO.

Capital Demand Drives IPO Pace

Unlike other tech giants like Stripe and SpaceX that have delayed their IPOs, AI companies may have stronger motivations to enter the public market.

The core driving force lies in their capital-intensive business models. Developing and training advanced AI models requires significant computational power investment and ongoing R&D expenses. An IPO can open the door to individual investors and more public funds, providing a broader financing channel than the private market.

Currently, the bullish sentiment in the market regarding the AI concept also creates a favorable window for IPOs. Lise Buyer, partner and founder of IPO consulting firm Class V Group, commented on the entire AI industry: “It’s clear they are growing rapidly, and it’s also clear they need incremental funding.”

She added that discussing potential IPOs or other exit strategies helps companies with later-stage financing because “people want to see a return on their money.”

IPO Timeline: Next Year or Longer?

Although Anthropic has taken the first step, its exact IPO timeline remains uncertain. According to the Financial Times, its IPO “could occur as early as next year.”

However, some industry observers hold a more cautious view. They speculate that the IPOs of these AI giants may not happen until 2027 or later, believing that hiring a law firm is typically a very early step in the company's IPO process, often years away from the actual debut.

Dual Challenges of Huge Fundraising and Complex Equity

Once these AI giants decide to go public, they may seek to raise substantial funds, but this comes with its own challenges. Lise Buyer pointed out that if too many new shares are injected into the market, “you will face the question of where the subsequent demand will come from.” Balancing fundraising needs with market capacity will be a challenge they must address Another complex factor is its equity structure. Since the implementation of the JOBS Act in 2012, private companies are no longer required to go public if they have more than 500 shareholders. This has led to many large private companies having thousands of shareholders, many of whom acquired their shares through secondary market transactions.

While this alleviates the urgency for companies to go public, it also means that once an IPO occurs, there will be a large number of shareholders looking to sell their stocks. Companies need to carefully manage lock-up agreements, and Lise Buyer believes that "for these giant companies, obtaining legal details for all lock-up agreement signatures is much more complex."

Market Barometer: Testing Investor Enthusiasm

Whoever crosses the finish line first, the IPOs of OpenAI or Anthropic will be seen as a key barometer for the entire tech industry. For years, investors have been waiting for the IPOs of "super unicorns" like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks, but most have only remained in the speculation stage.

Therefore, the IPOs in the AI sector will be the first significant test of the public market's true valuation of the new generation of tech giants. These AI startups are currently still in a loss-making state, making this test even more indicative. Their performance will directly impact investor confidence in the entire AI sector and provide important market references for other tech companies waiting to go public