Before the release of the U.S. September PCE, European and American stocks rose, Japanese stocks fell, the exchange rate increased, copper prices reached a new high, and gold and silver prices rose

Overnight unemployment data did not hinder expectations for a U.S. rate cut. Ahead of the delayed release of the U.S. September PCE inflation data, European and American stocks rose, while the dollar came under pressure. At the same time, market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan increased, putting pressure on the Japanese stock market and strengthening the yen.

On December 5th, U.S. stock index futures rose collectively, while Asian stocks showed mixed results. U.S. Treasury yields remained flat, with Japanese bonds showing divergence; the 30-year yield fell while the 10-year yield rose. The dollar slightly declined, the yen strengthened, and the Indian rupee fell back after a brief rise. Gold, silver, and copper prices increased, while oil prices faced pressure. Cryptocurrency movements were mixed, with Bitcoin falling and Ethereum rising.

In the past two weeks, the MSCI global stock index has continued to rebound, now just 0.5% away from the historical high at the end of October. This is attributed to easing concerns over the high valuations of technology stocks and rising expectations for a year-end rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A team of strategists at Barclays Bank wrote in a report:

"The stock market has recovered most of the losses from November and has almost fully digested the expectations of a rate cut at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Generally, the last two weeks of the year are the best-performing period for the stock market, so investors' 'fear of missing out' sentiment is once again on the rise."

Core market movements are as follows:

• U.S. stock index futures rose collectively, with S&P 500 futures up over 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up nearly 0.4%, and Dow futures up 0.07%.
• European stocks opened slightly higher, with the European Stoxx 600 index up 0.1%. The UK FTSE 100 index opened up 0.15%. The French CAC 40 index opened up 0.16%. The German DAX index opened up 0.15%.
• The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.1%, at 50,491.87 points. The Topix index closed down 1%, at 3,362.56 points. The South Korean Seoul Composite Index closed up 1.8%, at 4,100.05 points.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained basically flat at 4.10%. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.945%.
• The dollar index fell by 0.1%, the yen rose 0.3% against the dollar to 154.61, and the rupee weakened after rising, currently at 90 rupees to 1 dollar.
• Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,224.97 per ounce; spot silver rose nearly 2% to $58.21 per ounce; London copper rose 2% to $11,679.5 per ton; WTI crude oil fell nearly 0.2% to $59.57 per barrel.
• Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $92,005.39, while Ethereum rose 1.3% to $3,163.44.

The market is closely watching the U.S. PCE inflation data to be released tonight. Ahead of this, U.S. stock futures rose, U.S. Treasury yields stabilized, and the dollar faced slight pressure.

Wall Street expects that the core PCE price index preferred by the Federal Reserve will rise 2.8% year-on-year in September, potentially reaching the highest level since April 2024, highlighting persistent inflation. Nevertheless, due to significant pressure from weakening employment, the market still expects an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Analysts believe that if the PCE inflation meets expectations, rate cut expectations will strengthen, and the year-end Christmas rally is likely to continue. The overnight data released shows that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. The number of first-time unemployment claims fell to a more than three-year low last week, indicating that despite layoff news, employers overall still tend to retain employees. Meanwhile, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies fell back after a surge in October, but it is still the highest level for the same period in three years.

It is worth noting that due to the previous government shutdown, the non-farm payroll report for November, originally scheduled for release on December 5, has been postponed to December 16. This means that Federal Reserve policymakers meeting next week will not have access to this key data, and their decisions will rely more on inflation indicators and existing labor market signals. Nevertheless, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have not changed.

Affected by expectations of an upcoming interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the Japanese stock market came under pressure and the yen strengthened. The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to take action this month. According to informed sources, central bank officials are considering raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the two-day policy meeting ending on December 19. If this decision is implemented, Japan's policy rate will reach its highest level since 1995.

According to Wallstreetcn, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in six months and announced a trillion rupee bond-buying plan. After the announcement, the rupee initially rose against the dollar but then fell back. Weak trade and capital flows, coupled with stringent U.S. trade tariffs, have led to a weak rupee, which is currently at 90 rupees to 1 dollar. The yield on India's 10-year benchmark government bonds fell by 6 basis points to 6.45%, marking the largest decline since August 28. London copper rose more than 2% to $11,683.5 per ton, reaching a historic high. Citigroup released a bullish price outlook. According to Wallstreetcn, the cancellation of copper inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) this Wednesday ignited market sentiment, driving copper prices up. Analysts believe that this event is a direct response to the increasingly severe structural tension in the global copper market. Behind this is the sustained strong "pull" effect of the U.S. market on refined copper, leading to supply shortages in other regions of the world, forcing them to turn to the LME for spot resources.

Spot silver reversed its downward trend, rising 2% to $58.25 per ounce. In the early session, silver continued its correction trend, briefly falling below the $57 mark. According to Wallstreetcn, although the tightness of silver in London has recently eased, China's inventory is nearing a ten-year low, and the market is facing a structural supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week provide further support for this non-yielding asset.