Bessent "Spoiler": The actual GDP growth rate in the United States will reach 3% this year

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expects that despite a prolonged government shutdown, the U.S. will still achieve a 3% real GDP growth this year. This forecast reflects the White House's optimism about the economic outlook, even though consumer confidence and inflation pressures remain focal points for the market.

In an interview on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Becerra stated that this year's holiday shopping season is performing "very strongly," and the economic situation is better than expected. He anticipates that inflation will "drop significantly" next year and noted that the bond market "has just experienced its best year since 2020."

This statement contrasts with consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for December is 53.3, down 28% from the same period last year. Recent polls show that about two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has underperformed on economic and cost-of-living issues.

Becerra attributed consumers' concerns about affordability to media coverage and stated that the government is addressing the inflation issues left by the Biden administration, asserting that the U.S. will "move toward prosperity" next year.

Economic Growth May Exceed Expectations

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP contracted by 0.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, but grew by 3.8% in the second quarter.

Becerra stated:

"The economic situation is better than our expectations; we have achieved 4% GDP growth for several quarters. Despite the government shutdown, we will still close this year with a 3% real GDP growth."

The latest forecast released by the Atlanta Federal Reserve on December 5 shows an annualized GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the preliminary estimate of third-quarter economic data on December 23.

Inflation and Consumer Confidence Divergence

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, yet consumer sentiment remains low. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for December is 53.3, which, although up 4.5% from November, is down 28% from the same period last year.

The latest inflation data, delayed due to the government shutdown, shows that consumer prices rose by 3% year-on-year in September, with household food costs increasing by 3.1%. Persistently rising prices continue to affect consumers.

Trump stated during a cabinet meeting this Tuesday that "'affordability' is a Democratic hoax." However, a recent NBC News poll shows that about two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has performed poorly on economic and cost-of-living issues.

Treasury Department Responds to Affordability Controversy

When asked about Trump's comments on affordability, Becerra stated that the government is addressing the inflation issues left by the Biden administration and attributed consumers' views on the economy to media coverage.

"The American people do not realize how good their situation is," he said. "The Democrats have created scarcity, whether in energy or through overregulation, which is what we are seeing now with the affordability issue. I believe we will move toward prosperity next year."

Becerra also revealed that the Treasury Department is in talks with major philanthropists to recharge Trump’s accounts and will provide more information in the coming weeks