Close the gap with Tesla's Robotaxi! Waymo's weekly orders reportedly exceed 450,000, nearly doubling in less than eight months

Recent media reports indicate that Waymo, the autonomous driving company under Alphabet, has nearly doubled its weekly paid ride orders in less than eight months.

According to media reports, Waymo's investor Tiger Global recently announced the launch of a new venture capital fund, PIP 17. In a letter to investors introducing this new fund, which aims to raise $2.2 billion, it unexpectedly disclosed that Waymo's weekly paid ride orders have surpassed 450,000. This figure represents an 80% increase from 250,000 orders in April of this year.

This growth rate further expands Waymo's lead in the Robotaxi competition against Tesla. Tiger Global wrote in the letter:

"Waymo is the clear leader in the autonomous driving field, with its products being ten times safer than human drivers, and the recent weekly paid ride counts have exceeded 450,000."

The estimated weekly orders for Waymo provided by Tiger Global are based on publicly available information. Waymo is one of the largest holdings of the fund for 2024. Waymo declined to comment on the news.

From publicly available data, Tesla currently faces challenges in catching up to Waymo. According to Tesla's latest earnings call, the company's fleet in Austin has driven 250,000 miles, while the San Francisco Bay Area has exceeded 1 million miles. Waymo announced in July that it had reached a cumulative fully autonomous driving mileage of 100 million miles.

The growth in Waymo's orders is closely related to its rapid expansion. Shortly after the media reports, electric vehicle analyst Sawyer Merritt disclosed on social media that Waymo's Robotaxi service currently has 2,500 vehicles deployed across five cities: the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta.

In contrast, Tesla's autonomous driving testing scale remains limited, with its vehicles still equipped with human drivers or safety supervisors, and has not yet achieved fully driverless operation.

Among Waymo's fleet of 2,500 Robotaxi service vehicles, 1,000 are deployed in the San Francisco Bay Area, 700 in Los Angeles, 500 in Phoenix, 200 in Austin, and 100 in Atlanta. Based on the calculation of 450,000 weekly orders, each vehicle averages about 26 rides per day.

Data shows that Waymo has captured approximately 27% of the taxi market share in the San Francisco Bay Area, surpassing Lyft's 21% and trailing only Uber's share of over 50%. Waymo has also announced a series of expansion plans this year, including operating on highways in three cities and entering 12 new cities, including London, next year.

Morgan Stanley Predicts a Duopoly

Wall Street Journal mentioned this week that Morgan Stanley's research report this month pointed out that 2026 will be a critical turning point for the autonomous driving industry, predicting that by 2032, the United States will reach 16 billion miles of autonomous driving, with Waymo and Tesla collectively holding about 70% market share The report shows that the competitive logic of the two companies is completely different. In terms of safety, according to NHTSA data estimates, Waymo's average accident-free mileage is about 360,000 miles, while Tesla's Robotaxi data in Austin is about 50,000 miles, with Waymo leading by about 7 times. However, in terms of cost, Tesla's estimated cost per mile is $0.81, while Waymo's fifth-generation model costs as much as $1.36-$1.43, making Tesla about 40%-43% lower. Even with Waymo's sixth-generation model expected to launch in 2026, the cost can only be reduced to $0.99-$1.08.

The report predicts that by 2032, the market share of traditional ride-hailing platforms will shrink significantly, with Uber and Lyft expected to capture only 22% and 7% of autonomous driving trips, respectively. Given the long-term uncertainty, Morgan Stanley has lowered the target valuation multiples for both companies by about 10%, with Uber's target price reduced from $115 to $110