The divergence between AI investment and AI stocks may become the norm, similar to the new energy sector after 2021?

Guojin Securities:

This Friday (2025-12-12), U.S. AI technology stocks represented by Oracle and Broadcom experienced a significant decline, which is largely unrelated to whether their performance exceeded expectations during the period. Although Oracle's financial report fell short of expectations, Broadcom clearly exceeded them.

We believe the core issue still lies in the market's concerns about their future performance realization: including the likelihood of completing orders, sustainability of growth, maintenance of profit margins, and customer concentration, among others. Meanwhile, although U.S. stocks related to optical modules and PCBs reached new highs this week, they also saw a significant pullback on Friday. Similar to the situation at the end of October 2025 when some AI stocks' performance fell short of expectations after their third-quarter reports, the AI market experienced a temporary peak and pullback, leading to a rebalancing of market styles. At the same time, the "pan-AI" sector, which broadly benefits from AI investments, has garnered more attention.

We believe that the divergence between AI investments and AI stock performance will become the norm in the future, similar to the performance of new energy investments and new energy stocks after 2021. Investors should no longer be fixated on discussions and concerns about the AI bubble, but rather shift their focus to areas that benefit from the macro effects of the AI investment trend.