Technology "Shrinking Circle"
The team led by Lin Rongxiong from China National Investment Corporation pointed out that the A-share technology sector has gradually focused on clearly defined industrial trends since the second quarter. AI applications and robotics performed poorly in the second quarter, while AI hardware such as storage, PCBs, and optical modules continued to lead the market. In the third quarter, the advantages of optical modules became evident, and the rise of Google's Gemini 3 in November made Google's supply chain superior to NVIDIA. This internal narrowing of the technology sector reflects a surge of funds into high-certainty directions, indicating a decline in risk appetite and a reversal of expectations
The team of Guotou Lin Rongxiong:
Since the second quarter, the A-share technology sector has gradually focused on clear industrial trends. First, AI applications and robotics, which had uncertain performance and industrial trends, "fell behind" in the second quarter, while AI hardware such as storage, PCB, and optical modules continued to lead in technology; as we entered the third quarter, the advantages of optical modules relative to other hardware chains became more apparent. Since November, the rise of Google Gemini 3 and the heated discussions around the TPU route have led to Google's industrial chain being relatively more advantageous than NVIDIA's industrial chain.
This internal narrowing within technology, combined with the gradual reduction in market volume, reflects the characteristic of funds flowing into high-certainty directions, which essentially indicates a decline in risk appetite and a reversion of expectations.
