The selling pressure on tech stocks has temporarily eased, U.S. stock index futures have rebounded slightly, risk aversion has driven significant increases in gold, silver, and copper, the yen has strengthened, and platinum has surged by 3%

The Asia-Pacific stock markets fell sharply on Monday, continuing the sell-off of U.S. tech stocks from last Friday, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index down 1.2%. U.S. stock futures rebounded slightly on Monday, attempting to recover from last Friday's decline of over 1%, while commodities such as gold, silver, and copper rebounded strongly, with gold nearing historical highs and Bitcoin reversing earlier losses, rising to $90,000, indicating a stabilization of risk sentiment. Currently, the core of market turbulence lies in the ongoing doubts about the return on investment in artificial intelligence.

Last Friday, U.S. tech stocks led the decline, reflecting increasing skepticism in the market about whether the tech stocks that propelled global benchmark indices to record highs can continue to support high valuations. Marc Velan, Chief Investment Officer at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore, pointed out that the risk aversion in the Asian market resembles an overflow effect from the U.S. tech stock sell-off last Friday, with the unwinding of AI capital expenditure trades impacting global risk appetite.

This week, global central bank decisions are dense, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the Bank of England possibly lowering rates by the same margin to 3.75%, and the European Central Bank expected to keep rates unchanged. Investors will also face key data such as the delayed November employment report and monthly consumer price index due to the U.S. government shutdown, as the market attempts to glean clues about the health of the U.S. economy from this data void.

Kyle Rodda, Senior Analyst at Capital.com, stated: "In the new concerns over AI valuations, the 'Christmas rally' cannot be initiated. While risks are not as high as last week, there are still enough event risks to keep investors alert, which could spark the Christmas rally or equally deepen the sell-off."

Core Markets

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%;

Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3%;

MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell 0.6%; Nikkei 225 index fell 1.3%, and South Korea's KOSPI index fell;

The dollar index remained basically flat; the yen appreciated 0.6% against the dollar to 154.955, close to its strongest level in a week.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell 1 basis point to 4.17%;

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose 1 basis point to 1.955%;

Spot gold rose 1.1%, reported at $4,347.42 per ounce; spot silver rose 3%, reported at $63.87 per ounce; New York platinum rose over 3%;

WTI crude oil futures rose 0.4%, reported at $57.35 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.4%, reported at $61.35 per barrel;

Bitcoin rose 1.6%, reported at $89,862.01; Ethereum rose 1.9%, reported at $3,140.8;

16:57

The Spanish IBEX 35 index reached a historical high, with an intraday increase of over 1%.

16:53

Spot silver continued to rise, up 3% intraday, currently reported at $63.87 per ounce

(Spot silver 30-minute chart)

Spot gold rose more than 1% during the day, currently reported at $4,347.42 per ounce.

(Spot gold 30-minute chart)

New York platinum futures rose more than 3%, reported at $1,815.80 per ounce.

U.S. stock futures rebound slightly in an attempt to stop the decline, yen rises as the market bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike

U.S. stock index futures rebounded 0.3% on Monday, with S&P 500 e-mini futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both recording gains, attempting to recover from last Friday's decline of over 1%.

Regarding last Friday's decline in U.S. stocks, analysts pointed out that from the recent drop in Nvidia's stock price to Oracle's post-earnings plunge due to rising AI spending, and the deteriorating sentiment surrounding OpenAI-related companies, signs of skepticism are increasing.

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, downgraded the ratings of the so-called "seven giants" of large tech companies to underweight last week. He believes the core issue lies in the application prospects of AI, development costs, and whether consumers are ultimately willing to pay for the services, as these answers will significantly impact the future direction of the stock market.

Looking ahead to this week, the market will continue to focus on the movements of AI stocks, and investors will also have the opportunity to access economic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown, including the November employment report and the monthly consumer price index. These reports will help answer the key question entering 2026: Is the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts, or does it need to take more aggressive action?

Ben Bennett, Head of Asian Investment Strategy at L&G Asset Management, stated, "Given the data collection issues and the direct impact of the government shutdown on the economy, this week's data needs to be treated with caution. We will have to wait until 2026 to have a clearer understanding of the U.S. economic situation."

As investors increase their bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates later this week, the dollar/yen significantly declined, hitting a low of 154.95.

(U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen 1H Chart)

The quarterly Tankan survey released by the Bank of Japan on Monday showed that the confidence index for large manufacturers reached its highest level in four years, reinforcing market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike by the central bank. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno also stated that the specific details of monetary policy should be left to the Bank of Japan to decide.

David Forrester, a senior strategist at Crédit Agricole in Singapore, noted that in addition to the strong Tankan survey results, "Matsuno's comments have raised market expectations for continued rate hikes after a possible increase this week." However, he pointed out that "Ueda's recent comments have tended to be dovish, which may disappoint some investors this Friday."

Analysts indicated that investors will closely watch whether Ueda provides any guidance on the future interest rate path this Friday, which could be a key factor in determining the direction of the yen. Although Japanese interest rates are expected to rise, the yield gap with the U.S. is likely to remain significant, which may limit the upside potential of the yen.

Gold, Silver, Copper, and Oil All Rise, Gold Approaches Record High

Gold continued its recent upward trend for the fifth day, approaching the historical high of $4,381.21 per ounce. As of the time of writing, spot gold prices rose 1.0% to $4,344.89, as risk-averse investors withdrew from Asian stock markets due to concerns about the prospects of tech companies heavily investing in AI.

(Spot Gold 1H Chart)

Spot silver also climbed again today, with silver rising over 2% to $63.28 per ounce as of the time of writing.

(Spot Silver 1H Chart)

Notably, gold has surged over 60% this year, while silver has more than doubled, both on track for their best annual performance since 1979.

Copper prices recovered some of last Friday's losses as investors refocused on the tightening market outlook for 2026. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.5%, after a 3% drop on Friday due to concerns about demand for metals used in electrical wiring and renewable energy equipment triggered by a sell-off in AI-related stocks.

(LME Copper 1H Chart)

Copper prices have risen over 30% this year, boosted by supply cuts from a series of mine disruptions and traders transporting large amounts of copper to the U.S. ahead of potential import tariffs. The wave of investment in green energy and power infrastructure has also sparked optimism about long-term demand.

ANZ analyst Brian Martin stated in a report: "Despite concerns about a global economic slowdown, demand continues to exceed expectations. We are bullish on copper prices and expect the market to further fall into deficit by 2026." Brent crude oil rose 0.4% to $61.35, while U.S. WTI crude oil increased by 0.37% to $57.35 per barrel. The tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, along with supply concerns in other regions, boosted oil prices.

(Brent crude oil 1H chart)

(WTI crude oil 1H chart)