若 AI 无法兑现生产力承诺，美国将面临比 08 年更惨烈的 “毁灭性萧条”？

The U.S. government is betting its economic fate on artificial intelligence. If AI fails to deliver on its productivity promises, the U.S. could face a sovereign debt crisis more severe than that of 2008, which would be the most devastating financial disaster.

Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates and initiate a reserve management purchase program, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell linked this policy shift to the productivity enhancement prospects brought about by AI. Eric Peters, Chief Investment Officer of the well-known investment firm One River Asset Management, pointed out that the U.S. government's "full bet" on AI development is driven by the fact that the math of federal debt and welfare commitments can no longer be balanced.

In a recent report, Peters warned that if the AI revolution fails to deliver substantial non-inflationary growth and repay policy mistakes, the U.S. will fall into a deep recession and massive budget deficits, triggering a debt sustainability crisis. The risk of such a sovereign debt crisis far exceeds that of the technology sector itself, as the entire financial system will lose its last support when the final buyer is in trouble.

Although the similarities between the AI boom and the internet bubble are well-known, Peters advises investors to maintain their bullish positions in this bull market while allocating significant downside hedges.

Debt Dilemma Forces Policy Gamble

The U.S. government's comprehensive bet on AI stems from a harsh reality: the math of federal debt and welfare commitments no longer adds up.

Peters noted in his report that for decades, central bank officials and politicians have prevented economic clearing through increasingly aggressive interventions, continuously borrowing from the future to pay for the past and maintain the present. These interventions have shifted risks and excess behaviors from individuals and businesses to the government balance sheet.

Peters stated that the consequences are accumulating. He predicts that before the end of his career, the U.S. may experience a sovereign crisis similar to that of Sweden in 1992.

The only viable way to avoid this is to achieve substantial non-inflationary growth through productivity prosperity, thereby repaying the debts caused by policy mistakes. This is the fundamental reason why the U.S. government is fully promoting AI development.

Sovereign Debt Crisis: The Most Lethal Financial Disaster

Peters defines a sovereign debt crisis as the most devastating type of financial disaster, as the final buyer itself is in trouble.

He has experienced multiple crises throughout his career, starting with the 1992 Swedish crisis, where each crisis was caused by excessive leverage, over-reliance on historical experience, intellectual overconfidence, inadequate risk management, and a lack of imagination, which crushed investors.

If AI fails to deliver on its grand promises, the risk will extend far beyond the technology sector. This will lead to a deep recession and large-scale budget deficits, catalyzing a debt sustainability crisis that makes the 2008 financial crisis look mild. In a sovereign debt crisis, the entire financial system will lose its ultimate safety net due to problems with the government, the final buyer.

Peters noted that the similarities between the AI boom and the internet bubble have become too obvious and are widely disseminated in the market. However, Peters believes that the AI boom will not simply end like the internet bubble. It is precisely these apparent similarities that require investors to adopt more cautious strategies Despite the warnings of significant risks, Peters' investment advice is not simply bearish. He advises investors to continue to go long in this bull market while allocating a substantial amount for downside hedging.